IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2404.04989.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Towards a representative social cost of carbon

Author

Listed:
  • Jinchi Dong
  • Richard S. J. Tol
  • Fangzhi Wang

Abstract

The majority of estimates of the social cost of carbon use preference parameters calibrated to data for North America and Europe. We here use representative data for attitudes to time and risk across the world. The social cost of carbon is substantially higher in the global north than in the south. The difference is more pronounced if we count people rather than countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinchi Dong & Richard S. J. Tol & Fangzhi Wang, 2024. "Towards a representative social cost of carbon," Papers 2404.04989, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2404.04989
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.04989
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David J. Evans & Erhun Kula, 2011. "Social Discount Rates and Welfare Weights for Public Investment Decisions under Budgetary Restrictions: The Case of Cyprus," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 73-107, March.
    2. Ton S. van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2021. "The Risk-Adjusted Carbon Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 2782-2810, September.
    3. Thomas Sterner & U. Martin Persson, 2008. "An Even Sterner Review: Introducing Relative Prices into the Discounting Debate," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 61-76, Winter.
    4. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2018. "Global Evidence on Economic Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1645-1692.
    5. Tatiana Kossova & Maria Sheluntcova, 2014. "A Social Discount Rate for Appraisal of Regional Investments: Evidence from Russia," International Journal of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(14), pages 1024-1029, December.
    6. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 1935-1950, April.
    7. Ethan T. Addicott & Eli P. Fenichel & Matthew J. Kotchen, 2020. "Even the Representative Agent Must Die: Using Demographics to Inform Long-Term Social Discount Rates," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(2), pages 379-415.
    8. Terrence Iverson & Larry Karp, 2021. "Carbon Taxes and Climate Commitment with Non-constant Time Preference," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(2), pages 764-799.
    9. Moritz A. Drupp & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & Frikk Nesje, 2018. "Discounting Disentangled," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 109-134, November.
    10. Erhun Kula, 2004. "Estimation of a Social Rate of Interest for India," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 91-99, March.
    11. Moore Mark A. & Vining Aidan R. & Boardman Anthony E., 2013. "More appropriate discounting: the rate of social time preference and the value of the social discount rate," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, March.
    12. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    13. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2023. "The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1255-1270, September.
    14. David J. Evans, 2005. "The elasticity of marginal utility of consumption: estimates for 20 OECD countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 197-224, June.
    15. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 100-118.
    16. Minh Ha-Duong & Nicolas Treich, 2004. "Risk Aversion, Intergenerational Equity and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 28(2), pages 195-207, June.
    17. Niko Jaakkola & Antony Millner, 2022. "Nondogmatic Climate Policy," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(4), pages 807-841.
    18. Vivek Srikrishnan & Yawen Guan & Richard S. J. Tol & Klaus Keller, 2022. "Probabilistic projections of baseline twenty-first century CO2 emissions using a simple calibrated integrated assessment model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-20, February.
    19. Moritz A. Drupp & Martin C. Hänsel, 2021. "Relative Prices and Climate Policy: How the Scarcity of Nonmarket Goods Drives Policy Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 168-201, February.
    20. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    21. Tomáš Havránek, 2015. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Importance Of Method Choices And Selective Reporting," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    22. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    23. Helgeson, Jennifer & Dietz, Simon & Atkinson, Giles D. & Hepburn, Cameron & Sælen, Håkon, 2009. "Siblings, not triplets: social preferences for risk, inequality and time in discounting climate change," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-28.
    24. David Anthoff & Johannes Emmerling, 2019. "Inequality and the Social Cost of Carbon," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(2), pages 243-273.
    25. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2014. "Very long-run discount rates," Globalization Institute Working Papers 182, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    26. Wang, Mei & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Hens, Thorsten, 2016. "How time preferences differ: Evidence from 53 countries," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 115-135.
    27. David Evans & Haluk Sezer, 2002. "A time preference measure of the social discount rate for the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(15), pages 1925-1934.
    28. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & David B. Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2017. "Global Evidence on Economic Preferences," NBER Working Papers 23943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Maya Eden, 2023. "The Cross‐Sectional Implications of the Social Discount Rate," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2065-2088, November.
    30. Ben Groom & David Maddison Pr., 2019. "New Estimates of the Elasticity of Marginal Utility for the UK," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(4), pages 1155-1182, April.
    31. Ferda Halicioglu & Cevat Karatas, 2013. "A social discount rate for Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 1085-1091, February.
    32. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1047-1091, May.
    33. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Discounting the distant future: how much do uncertain rates increase valuations?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 52-71, July.
    34. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    35. Marcelo J. Villena & Hugo Osorio, 2023. "On the social discount rate for South American Countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 429-434, February.
    36. David Evans, 2004. "A social discount rate for France," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 803-808.
    37. Woo-Sik Sohn, 2019. "Discount rate and the social cost of carbon dioxide: a Korean forecast," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(32), pages 3436-3450, July.
    38. Anthony E. Boardman & Mark A. Moore & Aidan R. Vining, 2010. "The Social Discount Rate for Canada Based on Future Growth in Consumption," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 36(3), pages 325-343, September.
    39. Arian Daneshmand & Esfandiar Jahangard & Mahnoush Abdollah-Milani, 2018. "A time preference measure of the social discount rate for Iran," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    40. Julian Thimme, 2017. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 226-257, February.
    41. Andrea Tabi, 2013. "Using the stated preference method for the calculation of social discount rate," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 35(2), pages 167-186, August.
    42. David Evans & Haluk Sezer, 2004. "Social discount rates for six major countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 557-560.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rick van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8441, CESifo.
    2. Ben Groom & David Maddison Pr., 2019. "New Estimates of the Elasticity of Marginal Utility for the UK," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(4), pages 1155-1182, April.
    3. Arian Daneshmand & Esfandiar Jahangard & Mahnoush Abdollah-Milani, 2018. "A time preference measure of the social discount rate for Iran," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Akbulut, Hale & Seçilmiş, Erdem, 2019. "Estimation of a social discount rate for Turkey," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-85.
    5. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    6. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    7. Massimo Florio & Emanuela Sirtori, 2013. "The social cost of capital: recent estimates for the EU countries," Working Papers 201303, CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies.
    8. Traeger, Christian, 2021. "ACE - Analytic Climate Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Holger Strulik, 2021. "Hyperbolic discounting and the time‐consistent solution of three canonical environmental problems," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(3), pages 462-486, June.
    10. Lopez, Humberto, 2008. "The social discount rate : estimates for nine Latin American countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4639, The World Bank.
    11. Kornek, Ulrike & Klenert, David & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Fleurbaey, Marc, 2021. "The social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    12. Antonio Nesticò & Gabriella Maselli & Patrizia Ghisellini & Sergio Ulgiati, 2023. "A Dual Probabilistic Discounting Approach to Assess Economic and Environmental Impacts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(1), pages 239-265, May.
    13. Glätzle-Rützler, Daniela & Lergetporer, Philipp & Sutter, Matthias, 2021. "Collective intertemporal decisions and heterogeneity in groups," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 131-147.
    14. Mareike Schad & Jürgen John, 2012. "Towards a social discount rate for the economic evaluation of health technologies in Germany: an exploratory analysis," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 13(2), pages 127-144, April.
    15. Kent D. Daniel & Robert B. Litterman & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "Applying Asset Pricing Theory to Calibrate the Price of Climate Risk," NBER Working Papers 22795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Barrage, Lint, 2018. "Be careful what you calibrate for: Social discounting in general equilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 33-49.
    17. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    18. Yamaguchi, Rintaro & Shah, Payal, 2020. "Spatial discounting of ecosystem services," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Marc Oliver Rieger & Mei Wang & Thorsten Hens, 2021. "Universal time preference," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-15, February.
    20. Schaewitz, Johannes & Wang, Mei & Rieger, Marc Oliver, 2022. "Culture and Institutions: Long-lasting effects of communism on risk and time preferences of individuals in Europe," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 785-829.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2404.04989. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.