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Forecasting with a DSGE Model of the term Structure of Interest Rates: The Role of the Feedback

This paper studies the forecasting performance of the general equilibrium model of bond yields of Marzo, Söderström and Zagaglia (2008), where long-term interest rates are an integral part of the monetary transmission mechanism. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods on Euro area data. I investigate the out-of-sample predictive performance across different model specifications, including that of De Graeve, Emiris and Wouters (2009). The accuracy of point forecasts is evaluated through both univariate and multivariate accuracy measures. I show that taking into account the impact of the term structure of interest rates on the macroeconomy generates superior out-of-sample forecasts for both real variables, such as output, and inflation, and for bond yields.

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Paper provided by Stockholm University, Department of Economics in its series Research Papers in Economics with number 2009:14.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 20 May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2009_0014
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Department of Economics, Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden

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Fax: +46 8 16 14 25
Web page: http://www.ne.su.se/
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