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What Moves Bond Yields In China?

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Longzhen

    (School of Management, Fudan University)

  • Johansson, Anders C.

    (China Economic Research Center)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the joint dynamic processes of macroeconomic and monetary variables and bond yields in China. We show that macroeconomic variables as well as monetary policy variables have a significant impact on two factors that capture the variation in yields. An increase in the inflation rate and economic growth result in a rise in the yield curve. Similarly, an increase in the money supply causes a rise in the yield curve, albeit with a delayed effect. Finally, when official rates are raised, the long yield shows signs of a delayed decline. Overall, the long yield is more sensitive to most changes in macroeconomic and monetary variables. These results differ from an earlier study on bond yields by Ang and Piazzesi (2003), who show that the U.S. short-term rate is more sensitive to changes in macroeconomic variables. Possible explanations for the difference include certain unique structural features in the domestic financial system and the way monetary policy is conducted in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "What Moves Bond Yields In China?," Working Paper Series 2009-9, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hacerc:2009-009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    6. Heber Farnsworth & Richard Bass, 2003. "The Term Structure with Semi‐credible Targeting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 839-865, April.
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    10. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    11. Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. "Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
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    1. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "China's official rates and bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 996-1007, May.
    2. Löchel, H. & Packham, N. & Walisch, F., 2016. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese government yield curves," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 77-93.
    3. JOHANSSON, Anders C., 2009. "Is U.S. money causing China's output?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 732-741, December.
    4. Loechel, Horst & Packham, Natalie & Walisch, Fabian, 2013. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese Government yield curves," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 202, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; yield curve; macroeconomic factors; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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