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Real exchange rate persistence and systematic monetary policy behaviour

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  • Jan J J Groen
  • Akito Matsumoto

Abstract

This paper estimates forward-looking monetary policy rules for Germany over the 1979-98 period and for the United Kingdom for the periods 1979-90 and 1992-98. The estimation results indicate that there were substantial differences between systematic monetary policy in Germany and in the United Kingdom, as well as shifts in systematic monetary policy in the United Kingdom, over this period. The paper analyses the implications of these estimated policy rules for real exchange rate behaviour in an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The analysis shows that real exchange rate persistence could be attributed to the persistence of real shocks and interest rate smoothing behaviour of central banks. However, the observed cross-country asymmetry in systematic monetary policy behaviour elevates real exchange rate persistence to realistic levels, whereas changes in asymmetric policy behaviour alter the character of real exchange rate persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan J J Groen & Akito Matsumoto, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and systematic monetary policy behaviour," Bank of England working papers 231, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:231
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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2004/WP231.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nelson C. Mark, 2009. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1047-1070, September.
    2. Matsumoto, Akito & Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2011. "News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2132-2149.
    3. Jón Steinsson, 2008. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 519-533, March.
    4. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
    5. Ida Wolden Bache, 2008. "Assessing estimates of the exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper 2007/12, Norges Bank.
    6. Ida Wolden Bache, 2006. "Assessing the structural VAR approach to exchange rate pass-through," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 309, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Marins, Jaqueline Terra Moura, 2017. "Evaluation of exchange rate point and density forecasts: An application to Brazil," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 707-728.
    8. Martinez-Garcia, Enrique & Søndergaard, Jens, 2008. "The real exchange rate in sticky price models: does investment matter?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 17, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Pietro Cova & Alessandro Rebucci & Akito Matsumoto & Massimiliano Pisani, 2008. "New Shocks, Exchange Rates and Equity Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/284, International Monetary Fund.

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