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Climate policy transition risk and the macroeconomy

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  • Fried, Stephie
  • Novan, Kevin
  • Peterman, William B.

Abstract

Uncertainty surrounding if the U.S. will implement a federal climate policy introduces risk into the decision to invest in long-lived capital assets, particularly those designed to use, or to replace fossil fuel. We develop a dynamic, general equilibrium model to quantify the macroeconomic impacts of this climate policy transition risk. The model incorporates beliefs over the likelihood that the government adopts a climate policy causing the economy to dynamically transition to a lower carbon steady state. We find that climate policy transition risk decreases carbon emissions today by causing investment to become relatively cleaner and output to fall. This result counters the Green Paradox, which argues that climate policy risk raises emissions today by increasing incentives to extract fossil fuel, expanding its supply. Even allowing for the supply-side response, we find the demand-side response dominates, and the net effect of climate policy transition risk is still to reduce emissions today.

Suggested Citation

  • Fried, Stephie & Novan, Kevin & Peterman, William B., 2022. "Climate policy transition risk and the macroeconomy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:147:y:2022:i:c:s0014292122000988
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104174
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    3. Fahr, Stephan & Senner, Richard & Vismara, Andrea, 2024. "The globalization of climate change: amplification of climate-related physical risks through input-output linkages," Working Paper Series 2942, European Central Bank.
    4. Dong, Xiaotian & Wang, Kai-Hua & Tao, Ran & Sorana, Vătavu & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia, 2024. "Is there a relationship between climate policy uncertainty and green finance? Evidence from bootstrap rolling window test," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 277-289.
    5. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wang, Zu-Shan & Yunis, Manal & Kchouri, Bilal, 2023. "Spillovers and connectedness among climate policy uncertainty, energy, green bond and carbon markets: A global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Nicoletta Batini & Luigi Durand, 2024. "Accounting for Nature in Economic Models," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1014, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Rafaty, R. & Dolphin, G. & Pretis, F., 2020. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20116, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Mikhail Andreyev & Alyona Nelyubina, 2024. "Energy transition scenarios in Russia: effects in macroeconomic general equilibrium model with rational expectations," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps122, Bank of Russia.
    9. Liu, Zhonglu & Li, Jun & Sun, Haibo, 2024. "Climate transition risk and bank risk-taking: The role of digital transformation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Frankovic, Ivan & Kolb, Benedikt, 2024. "The role of emission disclosure for the low-carbon transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    11. Veronika Yu. Zemzyulina & Natalya R. Kelchevskaya & Ilia M. Chernenko, 2023. "The Impact of Sustainable Development and Reliability on the Performance of Russian Enterprises in the Context of an Economic Fragmentation," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(4), pages 1056-1086.
    12. Stefano Carattini & Giseong Kim & Givi Melkadze & Aude Pommeret, 2023. "Carbon Taxes and Tariffs, Financial Frictions, and International Spillovers," CESifo Working Paper Series 10851, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental macro; Carbon tax; Climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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