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The Macro Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty

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Abstract

Uncertainty surrounding if and when the U.S. government will implement a federal climate policy introduces risk into the decision to invest in capital used in conjunction with fossil fuels. To quantify the macroeconomic impacts of this climate policy risk, we develop a dynamic, general equilibrium model that incorporates beliefs about future climate policy. We find that climate policy risk reduces carbon emissions by causing the capital stock to shrink and become relatively cleaner. Our results reveal, however, that a carbon tax could achieve the same reduction in emissions at less than half the cost.

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  • Stephie Fried & Kevin Novan & William B. Peterman, 2021. "The Macro Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2021-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:90131
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2021-06
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    Cited by:

    1. Ryan Rafaty & Geoffroy Dolphin & Felix Pretis, 2020. "Carbon Pricing and the Elasticity of CO2 Emissions," Working Papers Series inetwp140, Institute for New Economic Thinking.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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