IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jecsur/v22y2008i4p774-793.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Should We Worry About The Failure Of The Hotelling Rule?

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias Kronenberg

Abstract

The continuing dependence of the global economy on fossil fuels is worrying because it imposes limits on growth due to the non‐renewable nature of these resources and also contributes to global climate change. Resource optimists believe that this is no reason to worry, because the economy will always find a way to overcome these constraints. Their arguments, however, require that resource prices reflect the scarcity of non‐renewable resources, which implies that they must obey the Hotelling rule. Empirical analyses, however, show that the Hotelling rule does not hold in reality, which raises the question: does the failure of the Hotelling rule imply that social optimality is not achieved? This paper argues that the answer depends on the reason for the failure. If extraction and exploration costs, or technological progress in these activities, are the reasons for the failure, a market failure is not implied, and optimality may still be achieved. But if the Hotelling rule fails due to uncertain property rights or strategic interaction, the market will surely fail to provide an optimal solution. A market failure is likely to speed up resource consumption compared to the social optimum.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Kronenberg, 2008. "Should We Worry About The Failure Of The Hotelling Rule?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 774-793, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:22:y:2008:i:4:p:774-793
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2008.00549.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2008.00549.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2008.00549.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Monopoly and the Rate of Extraction of Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 655-661, September.
    2. Gaudet, Gerard & Lasserre, Pierre, 1988. "On comparing monopoly and competition in exhaustible resource exploitation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 412-418, December.
    3. R. M. Solow, 1974. "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(5), pages 29-45.
    4. Sjak Smulders, "undated". "Environmental Policy and Sustainable Economic Growth - an endogenous growth perspective," EPRU Working Paper Series 95-07, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    5. Farzin, Y Hossein, 1984. "The Effect of the Discount Rate on Depletion of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 841-851, October.
    6. Milton C. Weinstein & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1975. "The Optimal Consumption of Depletable Natural Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 371-392.
    7. Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
    8. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    9. Elbert Dijkgraaf & Herman Vollebergh, 2005. "A Test for Parameter Homogeneity in CO 2 Panel EKC Estimations," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(2), pages 229-239, October.
    10. Ocampo, José Antonio & Parra, María Angela, 2003. "The terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    12. John Hartwick, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investment of Rents from Exhaustible Resources in a Two Sector Model," Working Paper 281, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    13. van Zon, Adriaan & Yetkiner, I. Hakan, 2003. "An endogenous growth model with embodied energy-saving technical change," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 81-103, February.
    14. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    15. Ferdinand E. Banks, 2004. "Beautiful and not So Beautiful Minds: An Introductory Essay on Economic Theory and the Supply of Oil," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(1), pages 27-62, March.
    16. Ocampo, José Antonio & Parra, María Angela, 2003. "Returning to an external debate: the terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century," Series Históricas 5, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    17. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
    18. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-861, October.
    19. Tobias Kronenberg, 2004. "The curse of natural resources in the transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(3), pages 399-426, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kronenberg, Tobias, 2010. "Dematerialisation of consumption: a win-win strategy?," MPRA Paper 25704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Laing, Timothy, 2015. "Rights to the forest, REDD+ and elections: Mining in Guyana," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 250-261.
    3. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier, 2009. "European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 51-80.
    4. Sascha Samadi, 2017. "The Social Costs of Electricity Generation—Categorising Different Types of Costs and Evaluating Their Respective Relevance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-37, March.
    5. Roel van Veldhuizen & Joep Sonnemans, 2018. "Nonrenewable Resources, Strategic Behavior and the Hotelling Rule: An Experiment," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 481-516, June.
    6. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2016. "The institutional basis of efficiency in resource-rich countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 519-538.
    7. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Banking And Borrowing In The Eu Ets: A Review Of Economic Modelling, Current Provisions And Prospects For Future Design," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 157-176, February.
    8. Pustov, Alexander & Malanichev, Alexander & Khobotilov, Ilya, 2013. "Long-term iron ore price modeling: Marginal costs vs. incentive price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 558-567.
    9. Julien Chevallier & Emilie Alberola, 2009. "Banking and Borrowing in the EU ETS: An Econometric Appraisal of the 2005-2007 Intertemporal Market," Working Papers halshs-00388071, HAL.
    10. Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm & Kronenberg, Tobias & Hansen, Patrick, 2010. "The social return on investment in the energy efficiency of buildings in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4317-4329, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hart, Rob, 2016. "Non-renewable resources in the long run," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-20.
    2. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    3. Perrings, Charles, 2014. "Environment and development economics 20 years on," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 333-366, June.
    4. Edward B. Barbier & Joanne C. Burgess, 2021. "Sustainable Use of the Environment, Planetary Boundaries and Market Power," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Gérard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.
    6. Berk, Istemi & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "Energy prices and economic growth in the long run: Theory and evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 228-235.
    7. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2017. "Environmental and resource economics: A Canadian retrospective," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1381-1413, December.
    8. Wojciech Potocki, 2009. "Mechanizmy kształtujące cenę ropy naftowej w teorii i rzeczywistości," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 10, pages 1-32.
    9. Seyhan, Demet & Weikard, Hans-Peter & van Ierland, Ekko, 2012. "An economic model of long-term phosphorus extraction and recycling," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 103-108.
    10. Toman, Michael & Pezzey, John C., 2002. "The Economics of Sustainability: A Review of Journal Articles," Discussion Papers dp-02-03, Resources For the Future.
    11. Figueroa B., Eugenio & Orihuela R., Carlos & Calfucura T., Enrique, 2010. "Green accounting and sustainability of the Peruvian metal mining sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 156-167, September.
    12. José Daniel López-Barrientos & Ekaterina Viktorovna Gromova & Ekaterina Sergeevna Miroshnichenko, 2020. "Resource Exploitation in a Stochastic Horizon under Two Parametric Interpretations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-29, July.
    13. Smith, James L., 2012. "On the portents of peak oil (and other indicators of resource scarcity)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-78.
    14. Toman, Michael & Krautkraemer, Jeffrey, 2003. "Fundamental Economics of Depletable Energy Supply," Discussion Papers dp-03-01, Resources For the Future.
    15. Samuel Fankhauser & Nicholas Stern, 2016. "Climate change, development, poverty and economics," GRI Working Papers 253, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    16. repec:fth:calaec:19-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. van den Bremer, Ton & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Wills, Samuel, 2016. "The Elephant In The Ground: Managing Oil And Sovereign Wealth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 113-131.
    18. Daniele Schilirò, 2019. "Sustainability, Innovation, and Efficiency: A Key Relationship," Palgrave Studies in Impact Finance, in: Magdalena Ziolo & Bruno S. Sergi (ed.), Financing Sustainable Development, chapter 0, pages 83-102, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Verchère, Alban, 2011. "Le développement durable en question : analyses économiques autour d’un improbable compromis entre acceptions optimiste et pessimiste du rapport de l’Homme à la Nature," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 87(3), pages 337-403, septembre.
    20. Issaka Dialga, 2017. "Changing the Africa's impoverishing economic model: Towards a rewarding sustainable specialization model with a new factor of production," Working Papers halshs-01500431, HAL.
    21. Ouoba, Youmanli, 2020. "Natural resources fund types and capital accumulation: A comparative analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:22:y:2008:i:4:p:774-793. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0950-0804 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0950-0804 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.