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The Macro Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty

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Abstract

Uncertainty surrounding if and when the U.S. government will implement a federal climate policy introduces risk into the decision to invest in capital used in conjunction with fossil fuels. To quantify the macroeconomic impacts of this climate policy risk, we develop a dynamic, general equilibrium model that incorporates beliefs about future climate policy. We find that climate policy risk reduces carbon emissions by causing the capital stock to shrink and become relatively cleaner. Our results reveal, however, that a carbon tax could achieve the same reduction in emissions at less than half the cost.

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  • Stephie Fried & Kevin Novan & William B. Peterman, 2021. "The Macro Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-18
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.018
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    Cited by:

    1. Ryan Rafaty & Geoffroy Dolphin & Felix Pretis, 2020. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Working Papers EPRG2035, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    2. He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and the stock return predictability of the oil industry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S. & Zhang, Philipp, 2023. "Shocks to transition risk," Discussion Papers 04/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Liu, Guangqiang & Zeng, Qing & Lei, Juan, 2022. "Dynamic risks from climate policy uncertainty: A case study for the natural gas market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Syed, Qasim Raza & Apergis, Nicholas & Goh, Soo Khoon, 2023. "The dynamic relationship between climate policy uncertainty and renewable energy in the US: Applying the novel Fourier augmented autoregressive distributed lags approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    7. Siddique, Md. Abubakar & Nobanee, Haitham & Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Hossain, Md. Naiem & Park, Donghyun, 2023. "How do energy markets react to climate policy uncertainty? Fossil vs. renewable and low-carbon energy assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Chen, Zhonglu & Zhang, Li & Weng, Chen, 2023. "Does climate policy uncertainty affect Chinese stock market volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 369-381.
    9. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Xuyou Yu & Qasim Raza Syed & Li Rong, 2024. "Testing the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis amidst climate policy uncertainty: sectoral analysis using the novel Fourier ARDL approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 16503-16522, July.
    10. Yan, Wan-Lin & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2023. "The dynamic spillover effects of climate policy uncertainty and coal price on carbon price: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    11. Zhang, Zhihao, 2023. "Are climate risks helpful for understanding inflation in BRICS countries?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    12. Raza, Syed Ali & Khan, Komal Akram, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and its relationship with precious metals price volatility: Comparative analysis pre and during COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Su, Chi-Wei & Yuan, Xi & Tao, Ran & Shao, Xuefeng, 2022. "Time and frequency domain connectedness analysis of the energy transformation under climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Policy; Policy Uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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