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The monetary policy innovation paradox in VARs: a "discrete" explanation

  • Michael J. Dueker

Monetary policy shocks derived from VARs often suggest that monetary policymakers regularly react to an unexpected increase that they induced in the federal funds rate with additional increases. This puzzling pattern can be called the “policy innovation paradox” because there is no obvious explanation for such a pattern. This article shows that the policy innovation paradox is most likely an artifact of failing to account for the discreteness of changes that policymakers make to the target federal funds rate. Mis-specified VARs that fail to account for discrete target changes imply the policy innovation paradox, whereas a model that uses information from discrete policy changes does not.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Mar. ()
Pages: 43-50

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2002:i:mar.:p:43-50:n:v.84no.2
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  1. Croushore, Dean & Evans, Charles L., 2006. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1135-1160, September.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, December.
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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