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Changing Policy Rule Parameters Implied by the Median SEP Paths

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  • Edward S. Knotek

Abstract

This Commentary estimates the implied parameters of simple monetary policy rules using the median paths for the federal funds rate and other economic variables provided in the Federal Open Market Committee?s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The implied policy rule parameters appear to have changed over time, as the federal funds rate projections have become less responsive to the unemployment gap. This finding could reflect changes in policymakers? preferences, uncertainty over other aspects of the policy rule, or limitations of estimating simple monetary policy rules from the median SEP paths.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward S. Knotek, 2019. "Changing Policy Rule Parameters Implied by the Median SEP Paths," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue April.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00098
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    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2019-economic-commentaries/ec-201906-changing-policy-rule-parameters.aspx
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christian Garciga & Edward S. Knotek & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2016. "Federal Funds Rates Based on Seven Simple Monetary Policy Rules," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue July.
    3. Michael J. Dueker, 2002. "The monetary policy innovation paradox in VARs: a \\"discrete\\" explanation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Mar.), pages 43-50.
    4. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael J. Dueker & Robert H. Rasche, 2004. "Discrete policy changes and empirical models of the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Nov), pages 61-72.
    6. George A. Kahn & Andrew Palmer, 2016. "Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-37.
    7. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
    8. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2020. "What drives the FOMC’s dot plots?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

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