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Robustness and Macroeconomic Policy

Author

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  • Gadi Barlevy

    (Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60604)

Abstract

This review considers the design of macroeconomic policies in the face of uncertainty. In recent years, several economists have advocated that, when policy makers are uncertain about the environment they face and find it difficult to assign precise probabilities to the alternative scenarios that may characterize this environment, they should design policies to be robust in the sense that they minimize the worst-case loss these policies could ever impose. I review and evaluate the objections cited by critics of this approach. I argue further that, contrary to what some have inferred, concern about worst-case scenarios does not always lead to policies that respond more aggressively to incoming news than the optimal policy would respond absent any uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Gadi Barlevy, 2011. "Robustness and Macroeconomic Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:reveco:v:3:y:2011:p:1-24
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    File URL: http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-economics-061109-080355
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    Cited by:

    1. David Hudgins & Patrick M. Crowley, 2019. "Stress-Testing U.S. Macroeconomic Policy: A Computational Approach Using Stochastic and Robust Designs in a Wavelet-Based Optimal Control Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1509-1546, April.
    2. Lensman, Todd & Troshkin, Maxim, 2022. "Implications of uncertainty for optimal policies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Matteo Cacciatore & Dmitry Matveev & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2022. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature," Discussion Papers 2022-9, Bank of Canada.
    4. Kohei Hasui, 2021. "How robustness can change the desirability of speed limit policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(5), pages 553-570, November.
    5. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    6. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2015. "Fiscal policy tracking design in the time–frequency domain using wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 502-514.
    7. Francois Gourio & Jonas Fisher, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2015 Meeting Papers 665, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 359-376, May.
    9. Gust, Christopher & Herbst, Edward & López-Salido, David, 2025. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertain private sector foresight," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    10. Li, Lin & Du, Le, 2024. "Impact of natural resources, financial innovation, and policy robustness on economic growth: A study of China and India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    11. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. David Hudgins & Patrick M. Crowley, 2023. "Resilient Control for Macroeconomic Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1403-1431, April.
    13. Charles Evans & Jonas Fisher & Francois Gourio & Spencer Krane, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 141-219.
    14. Mariusz Górajski, 2018. "Robust Monetary Policy in a Model of the Polish Economy: Is the Uncertainty Responsible for the Interest Rate Smoothing Effect?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 313-340, August.
    15. Mariusz Gorajski, 2016. "Robust monetary policy in a linear model of the polish economy: is the uncertainty in the model responsible for the interest rate smoothing effect?," Lodz Economics Working Papers 1/2016, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    16. Manuel Ramos-Francia and Santiago García-Verdú, 2017. "On the relationship between macroprudential policy and other policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy frameworks, implementation and relationships with other policies, volume 94, pages 239-255, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Bounader Lahcen & Traficante Guido, 2023. "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy in a Behavioral Environment," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 521-550, January.
    18. Hasui Kohei, 2021. "Trend Growth and Robust Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 449-472, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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