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Tests of Policy Ineffectiveness in Macroeconometrics

Author

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  • M. Hashem Pesaran

    (University of Southern California
    Trinity College Cambridge)

  • Ron P Smith

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

This paper proposes tests of policy ineffectiveness in the context of macroeconometric rational expectations models. It is assumed that there is a policy intervention that takes the form of changes in the parameters of a policy rule, and that there are sufficient observations before and after the intervention. The test is based on the difference between the realisations of the outcome variable of interest and counterfactuals based on no policy intervention, using only the pre-intervention parameter estimates, and in consequence the Lucas Critique does not apply. The paper develops tests of policy ineffectiveness for a full structural model, with and without exogenous, policy or non-policy, variables. Asymptotic distributions of the proposed tests are derived both when the post intervention sample is fixed as the pre-intervention sample expands, and when both samples rise jointly but at different rates. The performance of the test is illustrated by a simulated policy analysis of a three equation New Keynesian Model, which shows that the test size is correct but the power may be low unless the model includes exogenous variables, or if the policy intervention changes the steady states, such as the inflation target.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P Smith, 2014. "Tests of Policy Ineffectiveness in Macroeconometrics," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1405, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1405
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    File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/2014/PDFs/BWPEF1405.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2017. "Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 255-274, March.
    2. Richard Dennis, 2009. "Consumption Habits in a New Keynesian Business Cycle Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 1015-1030, August.
    3. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2009. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1481-1502, October.
    4. Gary Koop & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2013. "On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 300-314, July.
    5. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-272, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Cunha, Ronan & Merlin, Giovanni Tondin & Simões, Oscar Rodrigues, 2017. "The aftermath of 2008 turmoil on Brazilian economy: Tsunami or “Marolinha”?," Textos para discussão 459, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Counterfactuals; policy analysis; policy ineffectiveness test; macroeconomics.;

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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