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Estimating the Expected Duration of the Zero Lower Bound in DSGE Models with Forward Guidance

Author

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  • Mariano Kulish

    (School of Economics, Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales)

  • James Morley

    (School of Economics, Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales)

  • Tim Robinson

    () (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

Abstract

Motivated by the increasing use of forward guidance, we consider DSGE models in which the central bank holds the policy rate fixed for an extended period of time. Private agents’ beliefs about how long the fixed-rate regime will last influences current output and inflation. We estimate the structural for US data and infer the expected duration of the zero lower bound regime. Our results suggest that the average expected duration is around 3 quarters and has varied significantly since the onset of the zero lower bound regime, with changes that can be related to the Federal Reserve’s forward guidance.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating the Expected Duration of the Zero Lower Bound in DSGE Models with Forward Guidance," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2014n16
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    File URL: http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/working_paper_series/wp2014n16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam Cagliarini & Mariano Kulish, 2013. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Predictable Structural Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 328-336, March.
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    6. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    7. Jung, Taehun & Teranishi, Yuki & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy at the Zero-Interest-Rate Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 813-835, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating DSGE models with forward guidance," Discussion Papers 2014-32A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    2. Eric Gaus, 2014. "Adaptive Learning, Heterogeneous Expectations and Forward Guidance," Working Papers 14-03, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    3. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2018. "Measuring Exchange Rate, Price, and Output Dynamics at the Effective Lower Bound," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1243-1266, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zero lower bound; forward guidance;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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