IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/16471.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing Linearity in Term Structures

Author

Listed:
  • Peroni, Chiara

Abstract

Recent empirical studies suggests that affine models, a popular framework to analyse term structures of interest rates, are misspecified. This evidence is mainly based on time series properties of the data. This article re-examines this controversy, by investigating both cross-sectional and dynamic properties of affine models. To do so, it applies robust non-parametric techniques to two different sets of financial data, which contain information on the UK and US yield curve. The analysis shows the strong non-linearity in the relationship of yields to the US and UK short rate. The non-linear pattern is concave in the state variable, and increasing with respect to the maturity, for both countries. Linear and non-linear specifications are then compared by means of a formal statistical criterion, the Generalised Likelihood-Ratio test statistics, which confirms evidence against the linear specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Peroni, Chiara, 2009. "Testing Linearity in Term Structures," MPRA Paper 16471, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16471
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16471/1/MPRA_paper_16471.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiang, George J. & Knight, John L., 1997. "A Nonparametric Approach to the Estimation of Diffusion Processes, With an Application to a Short-Term Interest Rate Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 615-645, October.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    3. Fan J. & Zhang C., 2003. "A Reexamination of Diffusion Estimators With Applications to Financial Model Validation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 118-134, January.
    4. Bandi, Federico M., 2002. "Short-term interest rate dynamics: a spatial approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 73-110, July.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
    6. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    7. Jose de Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 155-208, January.
    8. Miguel Fuentes, 2007. "Pass-Through to Import Prices: Evidence from Developing Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 320, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    9. Roberto Álvarez E. & Gustavo Leyva J. & Jorge Selaive C., 2008. "Traspaso de Tipo de Cambio a Precios: Una Aproximación Microeconómica," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 105-112, December.
    10. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    11. Michael Pedersen & Hernán Rubio & Carlos Saavedra, 2009. "Empalme de subclases del IPC de Chile Series mensuales 1989-2008," Economic Statistics Series 79, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
    13. Pablo Pincheira B., 2009. "La Dinámica de la Persistencia Inflacionaria en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(1), pages 97-104, April.
    14. Eduardo López E. & Francisco Meneses P. & Felipe Córdova F. & M. Carolina Grünwald N., 2008. "Comportamiento del Precio Internacional de Granos Seleccionados y su Impacto en la Inflación," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 119-129, April.
    15. David Jamieson Bolder, 2001. "Affine Term-Structure Models: Theory and Implementation," Staff Working Papers 01-15, Bank of Canada.
    16. Roberto Álvarez & Patricio Jaramillo & Jorge Selaive, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 465, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Gao, Bin, 1999. "A Parametric Nonlinear Model of Term Structure Dynamics," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 721-762.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rates; term structure; affine models; non-linearity; non-parametric regression.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16471. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.