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Itô Conditional Moment Generator and the Estimation of Short-Rate Processes

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  • Hao Zhou

Abstract

This article exploits the Itô's formula to derive the conditional moments vector for the class of interest rate models that allow for nonlinear volatility and flexible jump specifications. Such a characterization of continuous-time processes by the Itô conditional moment generator noticeably enlarges the admissible set beyond the affine jump-diffusion class. A simple generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator can be constructed based on the analytical solution to the lower-order moments, with natural diagnostics of the conditional mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the proposed estimator has desirable finite sample properties relative to the asymptotically efficient maximum- likelihood estimator (MLE). The empirical application singles out the nonlinear quadratic variance as the key feature of the U.S. short-rate dynamics. , .

Suggested Citation

  • Hao Zhou, 2003. "Itô Conditional Moment Generator and the Estimation of Short-Rate Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 250-271.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:1:y:2003:i:2:p:250-271
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    Cited by:

    1. Julie Lyng Forman & Michael Sørensen, 2008. "The Pearson Diffusions: A Class of Statistically Tractable Diffusion Processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 35(3), pages 438-465, September.
    2. Chenyu Zhao & Misha van Beek & Peter Spreij & Makhtar Ba, 2021. "Polynomial Approximation of Discounted Moments," Papers 2111.00274, arXiv.org.
    3. Sutthimat, Phiraphat & Mekchay, Khamron & Rujivan, Sanae, 2022. "Closed-form formula for conditional moments of generalized nonlinear drift CEV process," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 428(C).
    4. Damir Filipovi'c & Martin Larsson, 2017. "Polynomial Jump-Diffusion Models," Papers 1711.08043, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.
    5. repec:uts:finphd:41 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Sögner, Leopold, 2020. "GMM estimation of affine term structure models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 2-15.
    7. Almut Veraart, 2011. "How precise is the finite sample approximation of the asymptotic distribution of realised variation measures in the presence of jumps?," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(3), pages 253-291, September.
    8. Larsson, Martin & Pulido, Sergio, 2017. "Polynomial diffusions on compact quadric sets," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 901-926.
    9. Junting Liu & Qi Wang & Yuanyuan Zhang, 2024. "VIX option pricing through nonaffine GARCH dynamics and semianalytical formula," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1189-1223, July.
    10. Garcia, René & Lewis, Marc-André & Pastorello, Sergio & Renault, Éric, 2011. "Estimation of objective and risk-neutral distributions based on moments of integrated volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 22-32, January.
    11. Christa Cuchiero & Francesca Primavera & Sara Svaluto-Ferro, 2025. "Universal approximation theorems for continuous functions of càdlàg paths and Lévy-type signature models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 289-342, April.
    12. Fred Espen Benth & Silvia Lavagnini, 2019. "Correlators of Polynomial Processes," Papers 1906.11320, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    13. Filipović, Damir & Larsson, Martin & Pulido, Sergio, 2020. "Markov cubature rules for polynomial processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(4), pages 1947-1971.
    14. Chenyu Zhao & Misha Beek & Peter Spreij & Makhtar Ba, 2025. "Polynomial approximation of discounted moments," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 63-95, January.
    15. Damir Filipovic & Martin Larsson & Tony Ware, 2017. "Polynomial processes for power prices," Papers 1710.10293, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    16. Damir Filipović & Martin Larsson, 2016. "Polynomial diffusions and applications in finance," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 931-972, October.
    17. Damir Filipovi'c & Martin Larsson & Sergio Pulido, 2017. "Markov cubature rules for polynomial processes," Papers 1707.06849, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2019.
    18. Christa Cuchiero & Martin Keller-Ressel & Josef Teichmann, 2012. "Polynomial processes and their applications to mathematical finance," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 711-740, October.

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