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Monetary policy rule for China - 1994-2006

With the development of market-oriented economic reforms, Chinese monetary policy plays an important role in the world. The objective of this paper is to review the recent conduct of Chinese monetary policy and the central bank’s rule-based behavior in period 1994-2006 by estimating the monetary policy rules (monetary policy reaction function). It compares four kinds of monetary policy rules -Taylor rule, McCallum rule, Modified Taylor rule and Modified McCallum rule and conducts the empirical study of these four rules with Chinese data. The findings are that these four estimated rules can describe Chinese monetary policy stance in some degree and Taylor rules are better than McCallum rules in evaluating Chinese monetary policy performance. This study includes five sections. Section 1 is the introduction. Section 2 is the brief literature review. Section 3 indicates four model specifications of monetary policy rule. Section 4 evaluates Chinese monetary policy performance utilizing models mentioned in Section 3. Section 5 provides concluding remarks.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series EAERG Discussion Paper Series with number 1405.

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Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeaer:14
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  1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995. "Optimal Inflation Targets, `Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," NBER Working Papers 5251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bennett T. McCallum, 1997. "Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  5. W. A. Razzak, 2003. "Is the Taylor Rule Really Different from the McCallum Rule?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 445-457, October.
  6. Jensen, Henrik, 1999. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
  9. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1998. "A guide to nominal feedback rules and their use for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 55-63.
  10. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
  11. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  13. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
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