IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/41.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Dubova, Irina
  • Volz, Ulrich

Abstract

This paper explores the extent to which changes to long-term interest rates in major advanced economies have influenced long-term government bond yields in Emerging Asia. To gauge long-term interest spillover effects, the paper uses VAR variance decompositions with high frequency data. Our results reveal that sovereign bond yields in Emerging Asia responded significantly to changes to US and Eurozone bond yields, although the magnitudes were heterogeneous across countries. The size of spillovers varied over time. The pattern of these variations can partially be explained by the implementation of different unconventional monetary policy measures in advanced countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina & Volz, Ulrich, 2017. "Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia," GLO Discussion Paper Series 41, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:41
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/156230/1/GLO_DP_0041.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bowman, David & Londono, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio, 2015. "U.S. unconventional monetary policy and transmission to emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 27-59.
    2. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
    3. Robert Lavigne & Subrata Sarker & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "Spillover Effects of Quantitative Easing on Emerging-Market Economies," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2014(Autumn), pages 23-33.
    4. Saiki, Ayako & Chantapacdepong, Pornpinun & Volz, Ulrich, 2016. "Dealing with Quantitative Easing Spillovers in East Asia: The Role of Institutions and Macroprudential Policy," ADBI Working Papers 604, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    6. Jaramillo, Laura & Weber, Anke, 2013. "Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 169-185.
    7. Michael Dueker, 2005. "Dynamic Forecasts of Qualitative Variables: A Qual VAR Model of U.S. Recessions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 96-104, January.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 2012. "The Federal Reserve, the Emerging Markets, and Capital Controls: A High‐Frequency Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 151-184, December.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Florian Verheyen, 2014. "The Low-Interest-Rate Environment, Global Liquidity Spillovers and Challenges for Monetary Policy Ahead," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(2), pages 313-334, June.
    10. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld, 2015. "Trilemmas and Tradeoffs: Living with Financial Globalization," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.), Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 2, pages 013-078 Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 233-289, September.
    13. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2014. "Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves," Working Paper Series 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 20 Jun 2016.
    14. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The Response of Interest Rates to US and UK Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 385-414, November.
    15. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 447-466, November.
    16. Peter J. Morgan, 2011. "Impact of US Quantitative Easing Policy on Emerging Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23215, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    17. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    18. Belke, Ansgar & Rees, Andreas, 2014. "Globalisation and monetary policy—A FAVAR analysis for the G7 and the eurozone," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 306-321.
    19. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2016. "Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 298-330.
    20. Blaise Gadanecz & Ken Miyajima & Chang Shu, 2014. "Exchange rate risk and local currency sovereign bond yields in emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 474, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Carlos Caceres & Yan Carriere-Swallow & Ishak Demir & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 16/195, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Sebastian Edwards, 2012. "The Federal Reserve, Emerging Markets, and Capital Controls: A High Frequency Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 18557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Jeffrey Moore & Sunwoo Nam & Myeongguk Suh & Alexander Tepper, 2013. "Estimating the impacts of U.S. LSAPs on emerging market economies’ local currency bond markets," Staff Reports 595, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    24. Kerstin Bernoth & Michael Hachula & Michele Piffer & Malte Rieth, 2016. "Effectiveness of the ECB Programme of Asset Purchases: Where Do We Stand? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 113, number pbk113, March.
    25. Iva Petrova & Michael G. Papaioannou & Dimitri Bellas, 2010. "Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads; Fundamentals vs Financial Stress," IMF Working Papers 10/281, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:riibaf:v:46:y:2018:i:c:p:516-527 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ansgar Belke & Thomas Osowski, 2019. "International Effects Of Euro Area Versus U.S. Policy Uncertainty: A Favar Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 453-481, January.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2018. "Exchange rates and macro news in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 516-527.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-term interest rates; bond yields; monetary policy spillovers; Emerging Asia;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/glaboea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.