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Chocs et règles de politique économique en UEM

  • Harry Garretsen
  • Bas van Aarle
  • Florence Huart

[eng] This paper analyzes how monetary and fiscal policy rules can achieve macroeconomic stabilization in a two-country model of an economic and monetary union. Three specific factors play a role in absorbing the effects of macroeconomic shocks : (i) the degree of flexibility of economic-policy rules ; (ii) structural asymmetries between countries ; (iii) the nature of inflation expectations. Real and nominal adjustments of national economies are helped by a combination of (i) a Taylor rule with moderate interest-rate smoothing and (ii) national fiscal rules that rely on moderate public-deficit smoothing and let automatic fiscal stabilizers work. [fre] Cet article analyse le rôle d’une variante de règles de politique monétaire et budgétaire dans la dynamique d’ajustement d’un modèle à deux pays formant une union économique et monétaire. Trois éléments influencent essentiellement les effets de chocs macroéconomiques : (i) le degré de flexibilité des règles de politique économique ; (ii) les asymétries structurelles nationales ; (iii) la formation des anticipations d’inflation. Une règle monétaire de Taylor avec ajustement partiel modéré du taux d’intérêt, associée à des règles budgétaires nationales reposant sur une inertie modérée du déficit public et laissant les stabilisateurs automatiques fonctionner, facilitent les ajustements réels et nominaux des économies.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 173 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 43-63

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2006_num_173_2_7938
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2006.7938
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