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La nouvelle version de MIMOSA, modèle de l'économie mondiale

Listed author(s):
  • Equipe MIMOSA
  • Henri Delessy
  • Henri Sterdyniak
  • Bruno Coquet
  • Philippine Cour
  • Hervé Le Bihan
  • Frédéric Lerais
  • Frédéric Busson
  • John Baude
  • Bernard Châtelain
  • Murielle Fiole

[eng] Mimosa, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, jointly built by the CEPII and the OFCE, is now reestimated. This article presents its main features and describes some monetary and fiscal multipliers. The economies of the six bigger industrialised countries are described in great detail by neo-keynesian models : a five product disaggregation distinguishes the energy sector, agriculture, the non-traded sector, the government sector and the industrial sector for which a putty-clay production function ensures compatibilities between employment, investment and production capacity behaviour. These models allow a precise analysis of the consequences of many kinds of monetary or fiscal policies. The rest of the world is divided into twelve zones, more succinctly modelled : the model reveals in particular the financing constraints which bear on the imports of the less developed countries. International trade is analysed through a four product disaggregation. The article shows the model's properties while describing the impacts, in the country and abroad, of an increase in public expenditure in one of the major countries. It studies the consequences of worlwide increase in public expenditures, the implications of a worldwide increase in interest rates, and finally the effects of a decline in the dollar exchange rate. [fre] MIMOSA, modèle macroéconomique de l'économie mondiale, construit en commun par le СЕРН et l'OFCE, est maintenant réestimé. Le présent article en expose les principales caractéristiques ainsi que quelques propriétés variantielles. Les économies des six plus importants pays industrialisés sont décrites en détail par des modèles d'inspiration néo-keynésienne ; le découpage en cinq branches (trois pour les Etats-Unis et le Japon) permet d'isoler l'énergie, le secteur agricole, le secteur abrité, le secteur non-marchand et l'industrie où la fonction de production, de type « putty-clay », vise à assurer la cohérence des comportements d'emploi, d'investissement, d'accumulation de capacités de production. Ces modèles autorisent une analyse fine des conséquences des diverses mesures de politiques budgétaires ou monétaires. Douze zones, décrites plus sommairement, regroupent le reste du monde : le modèle intègre en particulier les contraintes de financement qui pèsent sur les possibilités d'importations des pays en développement. Les interdépendances commerciales sont décrites en quatre produits. L 'article montre comment le modèle rend compte des effets différenciés sur l'économie considérée et sur l'économie mondiale d'une hausse des dépenses publiques survenant dans l'un des grands pays. Il étudie ensuite les conséquences d'une hausse mondiale des dépenses publiques, d'une hausse généralisée des taux d'intérêt, puis d'une dépréciation du dollar—

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 58 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 103-155

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1996_num_58_1_1431
Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1996.1431
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