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Targets, Zones and Asymmetries:A Flexible Nonlinear Model of Recent UK Monetary Policy

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  • Virginie Boinet

  • Christopher Martin

Abstract

We estimate a flexible model of the behaviour of UK monetary policymakers in the era of inflation targeting based on a new representation of policymaker’s preferences. This enables us to address a range of issues that are beyond the scope of the existing literature. We find a complex relationship between interest rates and inflation: interest rates are passive when inflation is close to the target but there is an increasingly vigorous response as inflation deviates further from the target. We also find that the response to the output gap is linear and find no evidence of a nonlinear Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Virginie Boinet & Christopher Martin, 2005. "Targets, Zones and Asymmetries:A Flexible Nonlinear Model of Recent UK Monetary Policy," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-21, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:bru:bruedp:05-21
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Felix S. Nyumuah, 2018. "Testing for Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 25-32, April.
    3. Liu, Dayu & Xu, Ning & Zhao, Tingting & Song, Yang, 2018. "Identifying the nonlinear correlation between business cycle and monetary policy rule: Evidence from China and the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 45-54.
    4. Roman Horváth, 2008. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 470-481, December.
    5. Xiaoyu Zhang & Fanghui Pan, 2019. "The Dependence of China’s Monetary Policy Rules on Interest Rate Regimes: Empirical Analysis Based on a Pseudo Output Gap," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, May.
    6. de Mello Luiz & Moccero Diego & Mogliani Matteo, 2013. "Do Latin American Central Bankers Behave Non-Linearly? The Experiences of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 141-165, April.
    7. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paya, Ivan, 2012. "Forecasting monetary policy rules in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-455.
    8. Chen, Chuanglian & Liu, Xiaobin & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2025. "The time-varying zone-like and asymmetric preference of central banks: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PA).
    9. Ikeda, Taro, 2010. "Time-varying asymmetries in central bank preferences: The case of the ECB," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1054-1066, December.
    10. Mustafa Caglayan & Zainab Jehan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules for an Open Economy: Evidence from Canada and the Uk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 279-293, July.
    11. repec:lan:wpaper:2364 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2010. "Zone‐Targeting Monetary Policy Preferences And Financial Market Conditions: A Flexible Non‐Linear Policy Reaction Function Of The Sarb Monetary Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 400-417, December.
    13. repec:lan:wpaper:2587 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Raputsoane, Leroi, 2011. "Optimal monetary policy reaction function in a model with target zones and asymmetric preferences for South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 251-258, January.
    15. Peter J. Stemp, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Asymmetric Targets," Monash Economics Working Papers 33-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    16. Hurn Stan & Johnson Nicholas & Silvennoinen Annastiina & Teräsvirta Timo, 2022. "Transition from the Taylor rule to the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(5), pages 635-647, December.
    17. repec:lan:wpaper:2444 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Della Posta, Pompeo & Tamborini, Roberto, 2023. "Does an inflation target zone help or hinder price stability?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    19. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.
    20. Pranjal Rawat & Naveen Srinivasan, 2020. "Inflation Targeting in the United Kingdom: Is there evidence for Asymmetric Preferences?," Working Papers 2020-196, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    21. repec:rza:wpaper:189 is not listed on IDEAS

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