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Optimal monetary policy reaction function in a model with target zones and asymmetric preferences for South Africa

  • Naraidoo, Ruthira
  • Raputsoane, Leroi

This paper estimates the optimal response of the SARB to deviations of inflation and output from their target values over the inflation targeting era. This is achieved using an empirical framework that allows the central bank's policy preferences to be zone-like and asymmetric. The first major finding is that the monetary authorities' response towards inflation is zone symmetric. That is, they react in a passive manner when inflation is within the target band whereas they become increasingly aggressive when it deviates from the target band. The monetary authorities also react with the same level of aggressiveness regardless of whether inflation overshoots or undershoots the inflation target band. The second major finding is that the monetary authorities' response to output fluctuations is asymmetric. That is, they react more aggressively to negative deviations of output from the potential so that they weigh business cycle recessions more than expansions.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 251-258

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:251-258
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. J. J. Dolado & R. Maria-Dolores & F. J. Ruge-Murcia, 2002. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence For The Us," Economics Working Papers we022910, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  2. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  3. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 1999. "Inflation zone targeting," Working Paper Series 0008, European Central Bank.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
  6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
  7. Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, 1996. "The opportunistic approach to disinflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Paolo Surico, 2007. "The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(1), pages 115-135, 03.
  9. Ruthira Naraidoo & Rangan Gupta, 2009. "Modelling monetary policy in South Africa: Focus on inflation targeting era using a simple learning rule," Working Papers 200904, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  10. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0106, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
  12. Surico, Paolo, 2007. "The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 305-324, January.
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