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Optimal monetary policy reaction function in a model with target zones and asymmetric preferences for South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Ruthira Naraidoo

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Leroi Raputsoane

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper estimates the optimal monetary authorities’ response to deviations of inflation and output from their target values for South Africa over the inflation targeting era. This is achieved using an empirical framework that allows the central bank’s policy preferences to be zone-like as well as asymmetric. The main findings are that the monetary authorities react in a passive manner when inflation is within the target band and become increasingly aggressive when it deviates from the target band and that they react with the same level of aggressiveness regardless whether inflation overshoots or undershoots the inflation target band, that is, the monetary authorities’ response towards inflation is zone symmetric. The second major finding shows that the monetary authorities’ response to output fluctuations is asymmetric such that they react more aggressively to negative deviations of output from the potential, therefore weighing more business cycle recessions versus expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2010. "Optimal monetary policy reaction function in a model with target zones and asymmetric preferences for South Africa," Working Papers 201004, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201004
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    Cited by:

    1. Chesang, Laban K. & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2016. "Parameter uncertainty and inflation dynamics in a model with asymmetric central bank preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Andrew Phiri, 2023. "Fisher’s hypothesis in time–frequency space: a premier using South Africa as a case study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 4255-4284, October.
    3. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    4. Pei-Fen, Chen & Mei-Ping, Chen & Min-Syu, Lin & Chingnun, Lee, 2025. "Cross-border transmission effect of China's monetary policy on the exchange rate of Asia-Pacific economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    5. de Sá, Rodrigo & Savino Portugal, Marcelo, 2015. "Central bank and asymmetric preferences: An application of sieve estimators to the U.S. and Brazil," MPRA Paper 72746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Inês da Cunha Cabral & João Nicolau, 2022. "Inflation in the G7 and the expected time to reach the reference rate: A nonparametric approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1608-1620, April.
    7. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Beatrice Desiree Simo-Kengne, 2018. "Inflation and Output Growth Dynamics in South Africa: Evidence from the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 143-154, January.
    8. Iddrisu, Abdul-Aziz & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Della Posta, Pompeo & Tamborini, Roberto, 2023. "Does an inflation target zone help or hinder price stability?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Philippe Burger, 2014. "Inflation and Market Uncertainty in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 583-602, December.
    11. de Sá, Rodrigo & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2015. "Central bank and asymmetric preferences: An application of sieve estimators to the U.S. and Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 72-83.
    12. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2017. "Forecasting South African macroeconomic variables with a Markov-switching small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 117-135, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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