IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedlrv/y1998inovp25-36n6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

In this article, Daniel L. Thornton tests several hypotheses about the market's reactions to changes in the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target. Thornton finds that short-term rates and long-term rates responded differently to funds rate target changes when target changes were accompanied by a change in the discount rate. He presents evidence that the smaller response of long-term rates (in these instances) is due to the market revising its inflation outlook when the target is changed. Thornton finds no evidence that the size of the market's response varies with the size of the target change; however, he does find that the response to target changes is somewhat larger when the target change is the first change in a new direction. The reader is cautioned, however, that some of his results are based on a very small number of target changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 25-36.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1998:i:nov:p:25-36:n:6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/98/11/9811dt.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feinman, Joshua N, 1993. "Estimating the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 231-247, May.
    2. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    3. John C. Robertson & Daniel L. Thornton, 1997. "Using federal funds futures rates to predict Federal Reserve actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 45-53.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    2. Courtenay, Roger & Clare, Andrew, 2001. "What can we learn about monetary policy transparency from financial market data?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Equal size, equal role? Interdependence between the euro area and the United States," Working Paper Series 342, European Central Bank.
    4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    6. Ivando Silva De Faria & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2011. "Financial Market Reactions To Thebrazilian Central Bank’S Decisions," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 108, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Explaining Monetary Policy in Press Conferences," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 42-84, June.
    8. Smile Dube & Yan Zhou, 2013. "South Africa¡¯s Short and Long Term Interest Rates: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 187-211, June.
    9. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    10. Albulena Basha & Wendong Zhang & Chad E. Hart, 2021. "The Impacts of Interest Rate Changes on US Midwest Farmland Values," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 21-wp614, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    11. Ehrmann, Michael & Talmi, Jonathan, 2020. "Starting from a blank page? Semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 48-62.
    12. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Linda S. Goldberg & Deborah Leonard, 2003. "What moves sovereign bond markets? The effects of economic news on U.S. and German yields," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Sep).
    14. Kaketsis, Asimakis & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "The effects of monetary policy changes on market interest rates in Greece: An event study approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 487-504.
    15. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2012. "The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 497-510.
    16. Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M., 2006. "Security markets and the information content of monetary policy turning points," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 477-494, September.
    17. David A. Becher & Gerald R. Jensen & Jeffrey M. Mercer, 2008. "Monetary Policy Indicators As Predictors Of Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 357-379, December.
    18. Jensen, Gerald R. & Moorman, Theodore, 2010. "Inter-temporal variation in the illiquidity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 338-358, November.
    19. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-328, November.
    20. Antúlio N. Bomfim & Vincent Reinhart, 2000. "Making news: financial market effects of Federal Reserve disclosure practices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Andersson, Magnus & Hansen, Lars Jul & Sebestyén, Szabolcs, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 631, European Central Bank.
    22. Andrea Monticini & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Are Euro Interest Rates led by FED Announcements?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    23. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
    2. Thornton, Daniel L., 2005. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2541-2556, October.
    3. Joe Lange & Brian P. Sack & William C. Whitesell, 2001. "Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Daniel L. Thornton, 2000. "The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?," Working Papers 1999-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bertola, Giuseppe & Prati, Alessandro, 2001. "Banks' reserve management, transaction costs, and the timing of Federal Reserve intervention," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1287-1317, July.
    6. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Short‐ and Long‐term Interest Rates," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 261-286, July.
    7. Selva Demiralp & Òscar Jordà, 2002. "The announcement effect: evidence from open market desk data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 29-48.
    8. Hsu, Chiente & Kugler, Peter, 1997. "The Revival of the Expectations Hypothesis of the US Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 115-120, August.
    9. Bredin, Don & Cuthbertson, Keith, 2000. "Risk Premia and Long Rates in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/00, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Shu Wu, 2008. "Monetary Policy And Long‐Term Interest Rates," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(3), pages 398-408, July.
    11. D H Kim, 2002. "Another look at yield spreads: The role of liquidity," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 04, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    12. K. Azim Özdemir & Özgür Özel, 2011. "Regime changes in monetary policy and the Expectation Hypothesis of the term structure in Turkey," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 261-274, May.
    13. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank.
    14. Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Deleidi, Matteo, 2019. "The causal relationship between short- and long-term interest rates: an empirical assessment of the United States," MPRA Paper 93608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    16. Peter Lildholdt & Anne Vila Wetherilt, 2004. "Anticipation of monetary policy in UK financial markets," Bank of England working papers 241, Bank of England.
    17. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
    18. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    19. Byeongseon Seo, 2000. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 121, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 379-401, July-Aug..

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1998:i:nov:p:25-36:n:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.