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Real time data, regime shifts, and a simple but effective estimated Fed policy rule, 1969-2009

  • Smant, David / D.J.C.

Estimates of Taylor rule equations for Federal Reserve policy over periods before the Greenspan period are misleading. Until 1979 Fed policy changed the real funds rate in response to the output gap, with no response to an inflation target. During the Volcker period the policy rule kept the real funds rate at a high but constant level, with no response to the output gap. Taking into account the regime shifts, a simple but effective funds rate equation can be estimated using only inflation and output gap.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26124.

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Date of creation: 22 Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26124
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  1. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  4. Ben Bernanke & Frederic Mishkin, 1992. "Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy: Observations from Six Industrialized Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 183-238 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. David E. Runkle, 1998. "Revisionist history: how data revisions distort economic policy research," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 3-12.
  12. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
  13. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
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