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News or noise? an analysis of Brazilian GDP announcements

  • Rebeca de la Rocque Palis
  • Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos
  • Patrice Robitaille
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    Revisions to GDP announcements in many countries are often large, and Faust, Rogers, and Wright (2003) have found that G-7 GDP revisions are predictable to varying degrees. In this paper, we extend FRW to study revisions to Brazilian GDP announcements. We document that revisions to Brazilian GDP are large relative to those of G-7 countries. Brazilian GDP revisions are also predictable, which is consistent with the view that GDP revisions correct errors in preliminary GDP rather than reflect news. However, GDP revisions are far from being entirely predictable. Although GDP revisions are largest only one year following the initial GDP release, those revisions are nearly unpredictable.

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    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 776.

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    Date of creation: 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:776
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    1. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: lessons and challenges," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 106-133 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Glejser, H & Schavey, P, 1974. "An Analysis of Revisions of National Accounts Data for 40 Countries," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 20(3), pages 317-32, September.
    3. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Pierre van der Eng, 1999. "Some Obscurities in Indonesia's New National Accounts," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 91-106.
    6. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Forecasting output with the composite leading index: an ex ante analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lourdes Urdaneta, 1976. "Some Aspects Of The Revision Of The System Of National Accounts In Venezuela," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 22(1), pages 37-47, 03.
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