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The Use of Qualitative Business TendencySurveys for Forecasting Business Investmentin Germany

  • Klaus Abberger

Investment in equipment and machinery is a very important component of GDP. In this paper we examine whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for a timely assessment of current investment behavior. In addition we investigate whether the survey results are helpful for forecastinginvestment growth in the short run. The first question is addressed with thehelp of spectral analysis. To study the forecast ability we estimate linearautoregressive and additive autoregressive models. The forecasting performance is assessed through filtered residuals. The analyses show that the business survey is indeed a useful tool for assessing investment in equipment and machinery.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-Ifo_Working_Papers/wp-ifo-2005-2010/IfoWorkingPaper-13.pdf
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Paper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Papers No.13.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_no.13
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  1. Daniel Pena & Ismael Sanchez, 2005. "Multifold Predictive Validation in ARMAX Time Series Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 135-146, March.
  2. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-26, August.
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