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Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule

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  • Seip, Knut L.
  • McNown, Robert

Abstract

We investigate the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board during six periods in US economic history 1959–2008. In particular, we examine the Fed's response to changes in three guiding variables: inflation, π, unemployment, U, and industrial production, y, during periods with low and high economic stability. We identify separate responses for the Fed's change in interest rate depending upon (i) the current rate, FF, and the guiding variables’ level below or above their average values and (ii) recent movements in inflation and unemployment. The change in rate, ΔFF, can then be calculated. We identify policies that both increased and decreased economic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:2:p:307-325
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.03.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Seip, Knut Lehre & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Does employees’ compensation vary with corporate profit?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 281-290.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy rule; Economic stability; Taylor rule; Nonlinear methods; USA;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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