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Early-warning signals for critical transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Marten Scheffer

    (Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands)

  • Jordi Bascompte

    (Integrative Ecology Group, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Calle Américo Vespucio s/n, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain)

  • William A. Brock

    (1180 Observatory Drive)

  • Victor Brovkin

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Stephen R. Carpenter

    (Center for Limnology, 680 North Park Street, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA)

  • Vasilis Dakos

    (Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands)

  • Hermann Held

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany)

  • Egbert H. van Nes

    (Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands)

  • Max Rietkerk

    (Utrecht University, Faculty of Geosciences, Copernicus Institute, PO Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • George Sugihara

    (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA)

Abstract

Tip-offs for tipping points Many complex systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have critical thresholds or tipping points where a sudden shift from one stable state to a contrasting regime may occur. Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, but work in different fields of science is now suggesting the existence of generic early warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching. Scheffer et al. conclude their review of this work optimistically: in situations where the existence of a critical transition is suspected, the generic character of the warning signs suggests that they may provide valuable information on whether the probability of a major event is increasing.

Suggested Citation

  • Marten Scheffer & Jordi Bascompte & William A. Brock & Victor Brovkin & Stephen R. Carpenter & Vasilis Dakos & Hermann Held & Egbert H. van Nes & Max Rietkerk & George Sugihara, 2009. "Early-warning signals for critical transitions," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7260), pages 53-59, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:461:y:2009:i:7260:d:10.1038_nature08227
    DOI: 10.1038/nature08227
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