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Fonctions de réaction des banques centrales européennes et convergence

  • Huchet-Bourdon, Marilyne

    (DERG)

Since January 1, 2001, twelve countries are taking part to the EMU. The introduction of the single currency is the result of a long process of convergence. The European Monetary System which was created in 1979 was already conceived in such a way that established a closer monetary cooperation between Member States. This adjustment process has been accelerated with the three preliminary stages to the creation of the EMU. Nevertheless, the question whether there is convergence of the central banks’ preferences or not still needs to be answered. In order to provide an answer to this interrogation, this paper presents the estimations of the functions of reaction of the eight main national central banks over the period 1980-1998. We also estimate the function of reaction which would have represented as best as possible the behaviour of the ECB if the countries had formed a monetary Union over this period. The results thus enable us to compare the behaviours of the central banks and allow us thereby to highlight a process of convergence of their preferences. Depuis le 1er janvier 2001, 12 pays participent à l’UEM. L’instauration de la monnaie unique constitue l’aboutissement d’un long processus de convergence. Le Système monétaire européen créé en 1979 visait déjà à établir une coopération monétaire plus étroite. Ensuite, les trois étapes préliminaires à la création de l’UEM ont accéléré le processus d’ajustement. Néanmoins, la question est de savoir s’il existe une convergence des préférences des banques centrales. Pour répondre à cette interrogation, cet article a pour objet d’estimer les fonctions de réaction des huit principales banques centrales nationales sur la période 1980-1998 mais aussi celle qui aurait représenté au mieux le comportement de la BCE si les pays avaient formé une union monétaire sur cette période. Les résultats nous permettent ainsi de comparer les comportements des banques centrales et mettent en évidence un processus de convergence de leurs préférences.

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Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 79 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (Septembre)
Pages: 297-326

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:79:y:2003:i:3:p:297-326
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