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Estimation of the Equilibrium Interest Rate: Case of CFA zone

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  • Dramani, Latif
  • Laye, Oumy

Abstract

Problem Statement The framework of this study is consisted of the countries of zone CFA and in fact the two central banks (BCEAO and BEAC) in charge of the monetary policy implementation. There was a great resurgence of interest these last years on the question in the way of leading the monetary policy. One of the indicators of this phenomenon is the enormous volume of recent papers and the conferences prepared on this subject. In addition, much of macro economists proposed specific rules of policy or ruled on the way in which the monetary policy should be led. The principal objective of this study is the evaluation of the macroeconomic gold rule in the CFA countries which stipulates that in an economy with equilibrium growth and under simplifying macroeconomic assumptions: the neutral interest rate is equal to the potential growth rate of the economy. Research Method To achieve this objective we try to determine the weight of the goals of monetary and fiscal policies attaches with a quadratic reaction function which takes into account a target of inflation, public expenditure and interest rate. And then the methodology of determination of the neutral interest rate is derived from a generalized Taylor rule. The estimation of the parameters is based on panel data econometrics, the generalized method of moments and the Kalman filter. These different methods are used to emphasize the robustness of the results of our analysis. Results and conclusion The estimates carried out on the panel data emphasize a neutral interest rate in the interval of 1.4% to 1.6%. It is generally noticed that the estimates made on the panel data are compatible with those carried out by using the Kalman filter. In addition, it is observed that, overall the level of the natural interest rate in UEMOA zone (1.51) is lower than CEMAC zone (1.65). The most important neutral rate is observed in the Malian economy and the lowest in the Burkina economy. But we notice a larger homogeneity in CEMAC zone (standard deviation of 0.12) than UEMOA zone ( standard deviation of 0.29).

Suggested Citation

  • Dramani, Latif & Laye, Oumy, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Interest Rate: Case of CFA zone," MPRA Paper 3610, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3610
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3610/1/MPRA_paper_3610.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33.
    2. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    4. Huchet-Bourdon, Marilyne, 2003. "Fonctions de réaction des banques centrales européennes et convergence," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(3), pages 297-326, Septembre.
    5. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
    6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    7. Rudi Dornbusch & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 15-64, April.
    8. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "On the Stratonovich – Kalman - Bucy filtering algorithm application for accurate characterization of financial time series with use of state-space model by central banks," MPRA Paper 50235, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor Rule; equilibrium interest rate; Kalman filter;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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