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Monetary Policy with Persistent Supply Shocks

Author

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  • Galo Nuño
  • Philipp Renner
  • Simon Scheidegger

Abstract

This paper studies monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with persistent supply shocks, that is, sustained increases in production costs due to factors such as wars or geopolitical fragmentation. First, we demonstrate that Taylor rules fail to stabilize long-term inflation due to endogenous shifts in the natural interest rate. Second, we analyze optimal policy responses under discretion and commitment. Under discretion, a systematic inflationary bias emerges when the shock impacts the economy. Under commitment, the optimal policy adopts a lean-against-the-wind approach without compensating for past inflation, implying that “bygones are bygones”. We further extend the model to incorporate the zero lower bound (ZLB) and show that the optimal policy supports preemptive easing.

Suggested Citation

  • Galo Nuño & Philipp Renner & Simon Scheidegger, 2024. "Monetary Policy with Persistent Supply Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 11463, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11463
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
    2. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    4. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Rossi, Lorenza, 2021. "Asymmetries in monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Meh, Césaire A. & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Terajima, Yaz, 2010. "Aggregate and welfare effects of redistribution of wealth under inflation and price-level targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 637-652, September.
    6. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
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    Cited by:

    1. Galo Nuño, 2025. "Three Theories of Natural Rate Dynamics," Working Papers 2528, Banco de España.
    2. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Gauthier Vermandel & Frank Smets, 2024. "The New Keynesian Climate Model," Working papers 977, Banque de France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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