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Monetary stabilisation policy in a monetary union: some simple analytics

  • Andrew Brigden
  • Charles Nolan

This paper does two things. First it looks at some simple models of monetary decision-making in a monetary union and asks how much more variable a country's output and inflation is likely to be if it joins the union. The question is asnwered analytically, and the simple model is then calibrated. The model has few structual equations, but does allow an analysis of the relationship between output and inflation variability and certain key parameters. Any conclusions, in this respect, are likely to be sensitive to model specification. However, the paper goes on to identify a second-best issue concerning the optimal make-up of the union which is likely to be more robust: namely that only when all members of the union have the same structural parameter values, and shocks are perfectly correlated, will it be optimal for a new member to have these same structural parameter values.

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File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/1999/wp102.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 102.

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Date of creation: Oct 1999
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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:102
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  8. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Martin S. Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 123-166 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fischer, Stanley, 1990. "Rules versus discretion in monetary policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 1155-1184 Elsevier.
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  12. Mervyn King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? conceptual issues," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 53-91.
  13. King, Mervyn, 1997. "Changes in UK monetary policy: Rules and discretion in practice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 81-97, June.
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  15. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  17. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "One Money or Many? On Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-030, University of California at Berkeley.
  18. Hughes Hallett, A J, 1986. "Autonomy and the Choice of Policy in Asymmetrically Dependent Economies: An Investigation of the Gains from International Policy Co-ordination," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 516-44, November.
  19. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination among the Industrial Economies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 1-76.
  20. Boyer, Russell S, 1978. "Optimal Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1045-55, December.
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  22. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March.
  23. Chadha, J.S. & Hudson, S.L., 1998. "The optimum currency area case for EMU: a structural VAR approach," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9815, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  24. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
  25. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1988. "The advantage of tying one's hands : EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1055-1075, June.
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