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Türkiye’de enflasyon beklentilerinin çapalanması ve güvenilirlik

  • Serkan ÇİÇEK

    (Maltepe Üniversitesi)

  • Cüneyt AKAR

    (Balıkesir Üniversitesi)

  • Eray YÜCEL

    (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası)

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin enflasyon hedeflemesi deneyimi, bekleyişlerin hedeflere çapalanma derecesi üzerinden değerlendirilmektedir. Zaman içinde değişen vektör özgecikmeli model tahminleri, çapalanma etkisinin 2006 yılı Mayıs ayına kadar yüksek, bu aydaki finansal türbülanstan Kasım 2008’e kadar kıyasla düşük seyrettiğine işaret etmektedir. 2008 yılı Kasım ayından sonra ise çapalanma davranışı kuvvetlenmektedir. Modelin tahminlerinin seyri ile anekdotal tarihlemeler arasındaki uyum, karar alıcıların Merkez Bankası’nı büyük ölçüde izlediği yönünde yorumlanabilmektedir.

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Article provided by Bilgesel Yayincilik in its journal İktisat İşletme ve Finans.

Volume (Year): 26 (2011)
Issue (Month): 304 ()
Pages: 37-55

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Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:26:y:2011:i:304:p:37-55
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  2. M. Ege Yazgan & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2007. "Monetary policy rules in practice: evidence from Turkey and Israel," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-8.
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  6. Antulio N. Bomfim & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  9. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
  10. repec:eui:euiwps:eco2010/10 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk-Tuğer, 2010. "Inflation expectations in Turkey: learning to be rational," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(21), pages 2725-2742.
  12. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk Tuger, 2005. "Some Evidence on the Irrationality of Inflation Expectations in Turkey," Working Papers 0512, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  13. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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