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Türkiye’de enflasyon beklentilerinin çapalanması ve güvenilirlik

Author

Listed:
  • Serkan ÇİÇEK

    (Maltepe Üniversitesi)

  • Cüneyt AKAR

    (Balıkesir Üniversitesi)

  • Eray YÜCEL

    (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası)

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin enflasyon hedeflemesi deneyimi, bekleyişlerin hedeflere çapalanma derecesi üzerinden değerlendirilmektedir. Zaman içinde değişen vektör özgecikmeli model tahminleri, çapalanma etkisinin 2006 yılı Mayıs ayına kadar yüksek, bu aydaki finansal türbülanstan Kasım 2008’e kadar kıyasla düşük seyrettiğine işaret etmektedir. 2008 yılı Kasım ayından sonra ise çapalanma davranışı kuvvetlenmektedir. Modelin tahminlerinin seyri ile anekdotal tarihlemeler arasındaki uyum, karar alıcıların Merkez Bankası’nı büyük ölçüde izlediği yönünde yorumlanabilmektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Serkan ÇİÇEK & Cüneyt AKAR & Eray YÜCEL, 2011. "Türkiye’de enflasyon beklentilerinin çapalanması ve güvenilirlik," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(304), pages 37-55.
  • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:26:y:2011:i:304:p:37-55
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Eda Gulsen & A. Hakan Kara, 2012. "Iletisim Politikasi ve Enflasyon Beklentileri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1214, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Eda Gulsen & Hakan Kara, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Communication in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(2), pages 1-10.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Para politikası; Enflasyon hedeflemesi; Merkez Bankası; Bekleyişler; Çapalanma; Güvenilirlik;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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