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Iletisim Politikasi ve Enflasyon Beklentileri

Author

Listed:
  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya
  • Eda Gulsen
  • A. Hakan Kara

Abstract

[TR] 2011 yilinin ikinci yarisinda enflasyonda hizli bir yukselis gozlenmesi ve enflasyonun uzunca bir muddet hedefin belirgin olarak uzerinde seyretmesi enflasyon beklentilerinin yakindan izlenmesini gerektirmektedir. Bu calisma, beklenti olusumunun zaman icindeki seyrini inceleyerek anilan donemde davranissal bir bozulma yasanip yasanmadigini incelemektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, enflasyon hedefinin beklentilerin temel belirleyicilerinden biri olmaya devam ettigini ve gecmis enflasyonun beklentiler uzerindeki etkisinin zaman icinde azaldigini gostermektedir. Bu sonuclar, enflasyon hedefinin cipa olma niteligini koruduguna isaret etmektedir. [EN] After displaying a sharp increase during the second half of 2011, inflation has been significantly above the target for a long period, necessitating a close monitoring of inflation expectations. This study assesses the evolution of inflation expectations and investigates whether there is a behavioral deterioration in the recent period. Our findings indicate that inflation target is still one of the main determinants of inflation expectations. Moreover, the weight of past inflation in explaining inflation expectations has been declining through time. These results suggest that inflation targets continue to serve as an anchor.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Eda Gulsen & A. Hakan Kara, 2012. "Iletisim Politikasi ve Enflasyon Beklentileri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1214, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1214
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Eda Gulsen & Musa Orak, 2010. "2008 Hedef Revizyonu Oncesi ve Sonrasinda Enflasyon Beklentileri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1001, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Erdem Başçı & Hakan Kara, 2011. "Finansal istikrar ve para politikası," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(302), pages 9-25.
    3. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. A.Hakan KARA, 2012. "Küresel kriz sonrası para politikası," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(315), pages 09-36.
    5. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk-Tuğer, 2010. "Inflation expectations in Turkey: learning to be rational," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(21), pages 2725-2742.
    6. Serkan ÇİÇEK & Cüneyt AKAR & Eray YÜCEL, 2011. "Türkiye’de enflasyon beklentilerinin çapalanması ve güvenilirlik," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(304), pages 37-55.
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    1. A.Hakan KARA, 2012. "Küresel kriz sonrası para politikası," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(315), pages 09-36.
    2. A. Hakan Kara, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Turkey After the Global Crisis," Working Papers 1217, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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