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Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balance

  • A. Hakan Kara
  • Cagri Sarikaya

Economic policies focusing on macro-financial risks in Turkey attribute special emphasis on current account developments. In this context, quantifying the role of cyclical factors in driving current account deficit is crucial for the design of an appropriate policy response against current account volatility. Using a simple methodology, this note decomposes the cyclical/transitory part of the current account in Turkey, with special reference to its three components, namely foreign demand, domestic demand and foreign trade prices. The estimations under various assumptions indicate that the main trend of the current account deficit hovers around 5 percent of GDP in recent years. Our findings contribute to the understanding of recent dynamics in the current account and associated policies.

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File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/c3c65dd3-2fcf-4b36-910d-1743222f0e8a/EN1318eng.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=c3c65dd3-2fcf-4b36-910d-1743222f0e8a
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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series CBT Research Notes in Economics with number 1318.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1318
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  1. Zelal Kotan & Mesut Saygili, 1999. "Estimating an Import Function for Turkey," Discussion Papers 9909, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. Okan Eren, 2013. "Pazar Buyuklugu ve Pazar Payi Bilesenleri Kullanilarak Turkiye’nin Ihracat Buyumesi ve Dis Ticaret Acigi Projeksiyonlari : 2013-2030," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1305, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  3. Koray Alper & Hakan Kara & Mehmet Yorukoglu, 2013. "Reserve Options Mechanism," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14.
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  8. Altan Aldan & Ihsan Bozok & Mahmut Gunay, 2012. "Short Run Import Dynamics in Turkey," Working Papers 1225, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  9. A.Hakan KARA, 2012. "Küresel kriz sonrası para politikası," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(315), pages 09-36.
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