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İhracatta Pazar Kompozisyonundaki Değişimin Dış Talep Göstergesine Etkisi

Author

Listed:
  • Hayrettin KAPLAN

    (Turk Eximbank)

  • Feridun TUR

    (Turk Eximbank)

Abstract

İhracat artışında dış talep koşullarının gelişimi önemli bir belirleyicidir. Türkiye’nin ihracatının pazar dağılımında AB’nin payı geleneksel olarak yüksek bir seyir izlemiş; bu çerçevede AB’nin büyüme performansı, ihracatçıların karşılaştığı dış talep koşullarının ana belirleyicisi olarak görülmüştür. Buna karşın Türkiye’nin ihracat pazar kompozisyonu küresel krizden itibaren önemli ölçüde değişmiştir. Bu çalışmada pazar kompozisyonundaki değişimin dış talep koşullarına etkisinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla ihracat ağırlıklı dış gelir büyüme göstergesi türetilip, bu göstergenin pay analizi kullanılarak ayrıştırılması ile dış talep göstergesindeki büyümenin ne kadarının kompozisyon değişiminden kaynaklandığı tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu doğrultuda 2004-2012 dönemi, kriz öncesi (2004-2008) ve kriz dönemi (2008-2012) olarak ayrıştırılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre Türkiye’de kriz dönemlerinde pazar kompozisyonundaki değişimin dış talep koşullarına katkısının göreli önemi artmaktadır. Çalışmada elde edilen bir başka önemli bulgu ise kompozisyon değişiminin dış talep göstergesine katkısının sadece cari dönemle sınırlı olmadığı, uzun vadede ihracat pazarlarında bir dönüşümü beraberinde getirerek, dış talep göstergesini etkileyebildiğidir.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayrettin KAPLAN & Feridun TUR, 2013. "İhracatta Pazar Kompozisyonundaki Değişimin Dış Talep Göstergesine Etkisi," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 24(86), pages 29-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:24:y:2013:i:86:p:29-53
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.35106
    Note: [English Title] The Effect of Export Market Composition Change to the Foreign Demand Indicator of Turkey [English Abstract] Foreign demand indicator is one of the most significant determinants of export growth. European Union (EU)’s growth performance had been seen as the determiner of the foreign demand indicator for Turkish exporters, because, EU has a significant share in Turkey’s export market composition. Despite that, Turkey’s export market composition had significantly changed, especially in 2000’s. In this study, we aim to figure out the effects of market composition change to the foreign demand conditions. For this purpose we generated a foreign income growth index, weighted by the export market share in total exports of Turkey. Then we decomposed the weighted foreign income growth index to composition and country effects, by using share analysis. Within this context, 2004-2012 period is separated into two sub periods to compare the global financial crisis’ impacts on composition and country effects. According to our results, in Turkey, country effect is the driving force of foreign demand growth in ordinary times; while in crisis periods composition effect’s relative importance increases. It is predicted that country effect would again become the driving force of foreign demand growth in the forthcoming years. Another important highlight of this paper is that; composition effect’s contribution to foreign demand indicator growth is not limited with the current period. Thus, composition effect implies a structural market composition change which affects the country effect in the long run. [English Keywords] Export Growth, Foreign Demand Indicator, Market Composition, Market Diversification.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    İhracat Artışı; Dış Talep Göstergesi; Pazar Kompozisyonu; Pazar Çeşitliliği.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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