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Elasticities of Turkish Exports and Imports

Author

Listed:
  • Ayla Ogus

    (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics)

  • Niloufer Sohrabji

    (Department of Economics, Simmons College)

Abstract

The Turkish current account has been exploding in the last few years leading to concerns of a crisis. One of the primary factors identified in the rising deficits is the appreciating lira. In addition, income elasticity of exports and imports can also shed light on continuing trade deficits. In this paper we analyze exchange rate and income elasticity of Turkish imports and exports. We find a significant gap between domestic and foreign income elasticities (for exports and imports respectively) which points to a threat of growing trade deficits. In addition we also find that the exchange rate elasticity is negative for both Turkish exports and imports. This indicates that depreciation of the Turkish lira will have a negative effect on both imports and exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2009. "Elasticities of Turkish Exports and Imports," Working Papers 0906, Izmir University of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:izm:wpaper:0906
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    File URL: http://eco.ieu.edu.tr/wp-content/wp0906.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "Analyzing the Present Sustainability of Turkey’s Current Account Position," Working Papers 0803, Izmir University of Economics.
    2. Thorbecke Willem, 2006. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Alper, C. Emre & Saglam, Ismail, 1999. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 1924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. A. Hakan Kara & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balance," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1318, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Natalya Ketenci, 2014. "Trade Elasticities, Commodity Prices, and the Global Financial Crisis," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 6(3), pages 233-256, September.
    3. Ihsan Bozok & Bahar Sen Dogan & Caglar Yunculer, 2015. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticity of Turkish Exports with Heterogeneous Panel Time-Series Methods," Working Papers 1526, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Gabriela Dobrotă, 2016. "The Influences of the Exchange Rate on the Performance of Romanian Trade," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 471-475, February.
    5. Teodor HADA & Teodora Maria AVRAM & Nicoleta BARBUTA-MISU, 2018. "The Impact of EUR/RON Exchange Rate Policy on Romanian Exports," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 5-14.
    6. Hayrettin KAPLAN & Feridun TUR, 2013. "İhracatta Pazar Kompozisyonundaki Değişimin Dış Talep Göstergesine Etkisi," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 24(86), pages 29-53.
    7. Kurtovic, Safet & Halili, Blerim & Maxhuni, Nehat, 2016. "Bilateral Trade Elasticity: B&H versus its seven trade partners," MPRA Paper 72297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:agr:journl:v:9(586):y:2013:i:9(586):p:39-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ketenci, Natalya, 2013. "The effect of global financial crisis on trade elasticities: Evidence from BRIICS countries and Turkey," MPRA Paper 54659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hakan Kara & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Turkiye�de Konjonkturel Etkilerden Arindirilmis Cari Islemler Dengesi," Working Papers 1340, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; current account deficits; exchange rate and income elasticity; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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