Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey
The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 to 2008. Misalignment, specifically overvaluation has been linked to fixed exchange rate regimes. By studying the case of Turkey during this period which covers both a fixed and floating exchange rate regime, we contribute to the literature on the relation between misalignment and exchange rate regimes. We first estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, then compute misalignment and finally test for structural breaks in the misalignment series. Through our tests we find three structural regimes which we call the pre-crisis period, the transition period and the post-crisis period. We find considerable overvaluation in first regime, which is when Turkey had a fixed exchange rate regime. This was not the case for the periods that had floating exchange rates. Thus, we conclude that overvalued currencies that have been linked to financial crises are a more serious concern for fixed exchange rate regimes.
|Date of creation:||07 Jul 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Economie Internationale 130.2012(2012): pp. 81-98|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "Analyzing the Present Sustainability of Turkey’s Current Account Position," Working Papers 0803, Izmir University of Economics.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Jean-Francois Hoarau & Ibrahim Ahamada & Alain Nurbel, 2007.
"Multiple structural regimes in real exchange rate misalignment: the case of Australian dollar,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 101-104.
- Jean-François Hoarau & Ibrahim Ahamada & Alain Nurbel, 2008. "Multiple structural regimes in real exchange rate misalignment: the case of Australian dollar," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00272862, HAL.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2009.
"Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 121-136, 02.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2008. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries," Working Papers 2008-07, CEPII research center.
- Rodrigo Caputo G. & Igal Magendzo, 2009. "Do Exchange Rate Regimes Matter For Inflation And Exchange Rate Dynamics? The Case Of Central America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 517, Central Bank of Chile.
- J. Jouini & M. Boutahar, 2003. "Structural breaks in the U.S. inflation process: a further investigation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(15), pages 985-988.
- Irfan Civcir, 2003.
"Before the Fall, Was the Turkish Lira Overvalued?,"
Eastern European Economics,
M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(2), pages 69-99, March.
- Elena Loukoianova & Plamen Iossifov, 2007. "Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana," IMF Working Papers 07/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Claudio Paiva, 2006. "External Adjustment and Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 06/221, International Monetary Fund.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1999.
"The Aftermath of Appreciations,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262.
- David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2005.
"Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
wp797, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Kemme, David M. & Roy, Saktinil, 2006. "Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-230, October.
- Lucio Sarno, 2000. "Real exchange rate behaviour in high inflation countries: empirical evidence from Turkey, 1980-1997," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 285-291.
- Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003.
"On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries,"
Journal of Asian Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
- Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2002. "On the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: Evidence from Four ASEAN Countries," Working Papers 0062, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
- Alper, C. Emre & Saglam, Ismail, 1999. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 1924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- J. H. Eita & Moses M. Sichei, 2006. "Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Namibia," Working Papers 200608, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46774. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.