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Analyzing the Present Sustainability of Turkey’s Current Account Position

Author

Listed:
  • Ayla Ogus

    (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics)

  • Niloufer Sohrabji

    (Department of Economics, Simmons College)

Abstract

In this paper we assess the present sustainability of Turkey’s current account position using the framework provided by Milesi-Ferretti and Razin (1996) based on the ability-to-pay and willingness-to-lend model. This framework allows us to assess the structural features and macroeconomic policy indicators. We extend this framework by considering global sustainability indicators as well. Using data for three periods, 1991-1993, 1998-2000 and 2004-2006 we evaluate the present sustainability in light of the prior two crises (1994, 2001). Based on our analysis of these factors in the extended framework, we conclude that Turkey’s internal structure and macroeconomic conditions (such as exports and the fiscal position) have improved that are allowing Turkey to continue having large and increasing current account deficits. However, there is vulnerability from global factors namely the impending U.S. recession and a potential global slowdown. This might require some adjustments in policy to continue accumulating large deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "Analyzing the Present Sustainability of Turkey’s Current Account Position," Working Papers 0803, Izmir University of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:izm:wpaper:0803
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. C. Emre Alper & Ziya Onis, 2002. "Emerging Market Crises and the IMF: Rethinking the Role of the IMF in the Light of Turkey's 2000-2001 Financial Crises," Working Papers 2002/03, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. C. Emre Alper, 2001. "The Turkish Liquidity Crisis of 2000: What Went Wrong..," Working Papers 2001/11, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    5. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    6. Milesi-Ferreti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current account sustainability," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34294, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    8. C. Emre Alper & Ziya Onis, 2003. "Financial Globalization, the Democratic Deficit, and Recurrent Crises in Emerging Markets : The Turkish Experience in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalization," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 5-26, May.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    10. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shruti Shastri & A. K. Giri & Geetilaxmi Mohapatra, 2018. "Testing the Sustainability of Current Accounts for Major South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2009. "Elasticities of Turkish Exports and Imports," Working Papers 0906, Izmir University of Economics.
    3. Dağdeviren, Sengül & Ogus Binatli, Ayla & Sohrabji, Niloufer, 2011. "Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 46774, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nkuna, Onelie, 2013. "Sustainability of the Malawian Current Account Deficit: Application of Structural and Solvency Approaches," MPRA Paper 51919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. H seyin Kalyoncu & Muhittin Kaplan, 2014. "Analyzing the Sustainability of Current Account in ASEAN Countries: Test of Intertemporal Borrowing Constraints," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 564-571.
    6. Richard J. Hunter Jr. & Mehmet Kilic, 2013. "The Effects of the European Debt Crisis on the Economic Future of Turkey. A Country Study," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(1), pages 195-209, January.
    7. N. Nergiz Dincer & Pinar Yasar, 2015. "Identification of Current Account Deficit: The Case of Turkey," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 63-87, March.
    8. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q2-130-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ayla Oğuş Binatli & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2012. "Intertemporal Solvency of Turkey’s Current Account," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 89-104, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account sustainability; predictors of crisis; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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