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Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium

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  • Brent Bundick
  • Trenton Herriford
  • Andrew Lee Smith

Abstract

We examine the macroeconomic and term-premia implications of monetary policy uncertainty shocks. Using Eurodollar options, we employ the VIX methodology to measure implied volatility about future short-term interest rates at various horizons. We identify monetary policy uncertainty shocks using the unexpected changes in this term structure of implied volatility around monetary policy announcements. {{p}} Two principal components succinctly characterize these changes around policy announcements, which have the interpretation as shocks to the level and slope of the term structure of implied interest rate volatility. We find that an unexpected decline in the slope of implied volatility lowers term premia in longer-term bond yields and leads to higher economic activity and inflation. {{p}} Our results suggest that forward guidance about future monetary policy can materially affect bond market term premia, even without large-scale asset purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent Bundick & Trenton Herriford & Andrew Lee Smith, 2017. "Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium," Research Working Paper RWP 17-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 12 Jul 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp17-07
    DOI: 10.18651/RWP2017-07
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2017-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2018. "Understanding the Aspects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Working Papers (Old Series) 1815, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 07 Nov 2018.
    2. Chen, Zhengyang, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," EconStor Preprints 204579, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Tang, Jenny, 2019. "Comment on “The long-run information effect of Central Bank communication” by Stephen Hansen, Michael McMahon, and Matthew Tong," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 203-210.
    4. Aeimit Lakdawala & Michael Bauer & Philippe Mueller, 2019. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," 2019 Meeting Papers 1403, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 7697, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    7. Bluwstein, Kristina & Yung, Julieta, 2019. "Back to the real economy: the effects of risk perception shocks on the term premium and bank lending," Bank of England working papers 806, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Policy Uncertainty; Bond Forward Guidance; Term Premium;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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