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Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium

Author

Listed:
  • Bundick, Brent

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)

  • Herriford, Trenton

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)

  • Smith, Andrew Lee

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)

Abstract

We examine the macroeconomic and term-premia implications of monetary policy uncertainty shocks. Using Eurodollar options, we employ the VIX methodology to measure implied volatility about future short-term interest rates at various horizons. We identify monetary policy uncertainty shocks using the unexpected changes in this term structure of implied volatility around monetary policy announcements. {{p}} Two principal components succinctly characterize these changes around policy announcements, which have the interpretation as shocks to the level and slope of the term structure of implied interest rate volatility. We find that an unexpected decline in the slope of implied volatility lowers term premia in longer-term bond yields and leads to higher economic activity and inflation. {{p}} Our results suggest that forward guidance about future monetary policy can materially affect bond market term premia, even without large-scale asset purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • Bundick, Brent & Herriford, Trenton & Smith, Andrew Lee, 2017. "Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium," Research Working Paper RWP 17-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp17-07
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2017-07
    File Function: https://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2017-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    5. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
    6. Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Bond Forward Guidance; Policy Uncertainty; Term Premium;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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