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Macroeconomic determinants of corporate failures: evidence from the UK


  • Jia Liu


Previous studies on the relationship between macroeconomic aggregates and business failures have been restricted to the description of the short-run relationships among the variables. This paper uses an error-correction model (ECM) to investigate the determinants of UK corporate failures by modelling the short-run and long-run behaviours of corporate failure rates in relation to macroeconomic phenomena over the period 1966-1999. The findings indicate that failure rates are associated with interest rates, credit, profits, price, and corporate birth rates both in the short run and in the long run. Of these macroeconomic variables, interest rate appears to be an important factor influencing failure rates and can be used as a feasible policy instrument to reduce the incidence of corporate failures. The impact of the Insolvency Act 1986 has also been examined and its mitigating effect on corporate failures has been identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Jia Liu, 2004. "Macroeconomic determinants of corporate failures: evidence from the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 939-945.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:9:p:939-945
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000233168

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
    2. Platt, Harlan D. & Platt, Marjorie B., 1994. "Business cycle effects on state corporate failure rates," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 113-127, May.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ugur, Mehmet & Trushin, Eshref & Solomon, Edna, 2016. "Inverted-U relationship between R&D intensity and survival: Evidence on scale and complementarity effects in UK data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1474-1492.
    2. Henryk Gurgul & Paweł Zając, 2014. "The impact of alterations in the local insolvency legislation on business bankruptcy rates in Poland," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 15(3), pages 453-466, June.
    3. A. Bhattacharjee & C. Higson & S. Holly & P. Kattuman, 2009. "Macroeconomic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 108-131, February.
    4. Petr Jakubík & Tatiana Škerlíková, 2014. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Firms’ Default in the Czech Republic," Český finanční a účetní časopis, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(2), pages 69-80.
    5. Priscila Ferreira & George Saridakis, 2016. "Firm Shutdown During the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Empirical Evidence from Portugal," NIMA Working Papers 61, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    6. Harada, Nobuyuki & Kageyama, Noriyuki, 2011. "Bankruptcy dynamics in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 119-128, March.
    7. Maria H. Kim & Graham Partington, 2015. "Dynamic forecasts of financial distress of Australian firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(1), pages 135-160, February.
    8. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1174-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Natalia Nehrebecka & Michał Brzozowski, 2016. "Wpływ niepewności makroekonomicznej na oszczędności przedsiębiorstw," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 51-69.
    10. Ioana Maria BUCERZAN, 2015. "The Propagation Of Insolvency Among Business In Romania," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 2, pages 64-79.
    11. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Stephan, Andreas & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2008. "Uncertainty determinants of corporate liquidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 833-849, September.
    12. Nico Dewaelheyns & Cynthia Hulle, 2008. "Legal reform and aggregate small and micro business bankruptcy rates: evidence from the 1997 Belgian bankruptcy code," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 409-424, December.
    13. Ugur, Mehmet & Trushin, Eshref & Solomon, Edna, 2015. "Inverted-U relationship between innovation and survival: Evidence from firm-level UK data," MPRA Paper 68010, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Nov 2015.
    14. Peter Lloyd Jones, 2011. "The determinants of aggregate creditors' voluntary liquidations," Post-Print hal-00762895, HAL.
    15. Nicholas Lee & Fu-Min Chang & Yale Wang & Duong Thu La & Hsiang-Jane Su, 2017. "Impacts of Macroeconomic News on Vietnamese SOEs' Performance," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-5.
    16. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Higson & Sean Holly & Paul Kattuman, 2007. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms," CDMA Working Paper Series 200713, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    17. Piñeiro Sánchez Carlos & Llano Monelos Pablo De & Rodríguez López Manuel, 2013. "A parsimonious model to forecast financial distress, based on audit evidence," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 58(4), pages 151-173, octubre-d.
    18. Salman, A. Khalik & von Friedrichs, Yvonne & Shukur, Ghazi, 2009. "Macroeconomic Factors and Swedish Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturing Firm Failure," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 185, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    19. Agustinus, Prasetyantoko & Rachmadi, Parmono, 2008. "Determinants of Corporate Performance of Listed Companies in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 6777, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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