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Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur

Listed author(s):
  • Régis Blazy

[fre] Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur Régis Blazy Notre étude relie entre eux les principaux facteurs explicatifs du processus de défaillance involontaire généralement avancés par la littérature théorique, en privilégiant le rôle joué par les erreurs d'anticipation de la demande commises par les entreprises. L'analyse théorique présentée permet de mettre en évidence un mécanisme de convergence plus ou moins stable de ces anticipations. L'impact des erreurs d' anticipation de la demande sur la probabilité de défaillance des entreprises est confirmé économétriquement en utilisant les enquêtes d'activité menées par l'Insee sur le secteur industriel entre 1977 et 1994. D'autres variables, décrivant le contexte démographique et financier des entreprises sur cette période sont également analysées. [eng] Imitation, Demand Expectation Errors and the Risk of Bankruptcy Among Industrial Firms in France: An Econometric Error Correction Model Régis Blazy Our study links up the main explanatory factors generally put forward by theoretical literature as being behind the involuntary bankruptcy process by focusing on the role played by the demand expectation errors made by firms. The theoretical analysis presented posits a more or less stable convergence mechanism for these expectations. The effect of demand expectation errors on the probability of bankruptcy is econometrically confirmed using INSEE's business surveys of the industrial sector from 1977 to 1994. Other variables describing the legal, demographic and financial circumstances of firms during this period are also analysed.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 125 (1996)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1-18

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1996.5803
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  1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  2. Castanias, Richard, 1983. " Bankruptcy Risk and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1617-1635, December.
  3. Simmons, Peter, 1989. "Bad Luck and Fixed Costs in Personal Bankruptcies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 92-107, March.
  4. de Leeuw, Frank & McKelvey, Michael J, 1984. "Price Expectations of Business Firms: Bias in the Short and Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 99-110, March.
  5. Mireille Bardos, 1990. "Le crédit plus cher pour les petites entreprises," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 236(1), pages 51-64.
  6. Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1986. "Inflation, Bankruptcy, Default Premia and the Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 120-138, March.
  7. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  8. Myers, Stewart C., 1984. "Capital structure puzzle," Working papers 1548-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  9. repec:nsr:niesrd:54 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Jean-Marie Callies, 1988. "Une entreprise sur deux disparaît avant cinq ans," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 215(1), pages 45-50.
  11. White, Michelle J, 1989. "The Corporate Bankruptcy Decision," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 129-151, Spring.
  12. Murray Z. Frank, 1988. "An Intertemporal Model of Industrial Exit," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(2), pages 333-344.
  13. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. " The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-592, July.
  14. Régis Blazy & Patricia Charlety & Jérôme Combier, 1993. "Les défaillances d'entreprises : des difficultés visibles plusieurs années à l'avance," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 268(1), pages 101-111.
  15. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Luc Marco & Michel Rainelli, 1986. "« Les disparitions de firmes industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique »," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13.
  17. Paul Francis O'Brien & Frank Browne, 1992. "A "Credit Crunch"?: The Recent Slowdown in Bank Lending and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 107, OECD Publishing.
  18. Hudson, John & Cuthbertson, Keith, 1993. "The Determinants of Bankruptcies in the U.K.: 1971-1988," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(1), pages 65-81, March.
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