IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/ecoprv/ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur

Author

Listed:
  • Régis Blazy

Abstract

[fre] Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur . Régis Blazy . Notre étude relie entre eux les principaux facteurs explicatifs du processus de défaillance involontaire généralement avancés par la littérature théorique, en privilégiant le rôle joué par les erreurs d'anticipation de la demande commises par les entreprises. L'analyse théorique présentée permet de mettre en évidence un mécanisme de convergence plus ou moins stable de ces anticipations. L'impact des erreurs d' anticipation de la demande sur la probabilité de défaillance des entreprises est confirmé économétriquement en utilisant les enquêtes d'activité menées par l'Insee sur le secteur industriel entre 1977 et 1994. D'autres variables, décrivant le contexte démographique et financier des entreprises sur cette période sont également analysées. [eng] Imitation, Demand Expectation Errors and the Risk of Bankruptcy Among Industrial Firms in France: An . Econometric Error Correction Model . Régis Blazy . Our study links up the main explanatory factors generally put forward by theoretical literature as being behind the involuntary bankruptcy process by focusing on the role played by the demand expectation errors made by firms. The theoretical analysis presented posits a more or less stable convergence mechanism for these expectations. The effect of demand expectation errors on the probability of bankruptcy is econometrically confirmed using INSEE's business surveys of the industrial sector from 1977 to 1994. Other variables describing the legal, demographic and financial circumstances of firms during this period are also analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Régis Blazy, 1996. "Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 1-18.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1996.5803
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ecop.1996.5803
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence Bloch & Jérôme Bourdieu & Béatrice Colin-Sédillot & Guy Longueville, 1995. "Du défaut de paiement au dépôt de bilan : les banquiers face aux PME en difficulté," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 32(1), pages 229-256.
    2. Luc Marco & Michel Rainelli, 1986. "« Les disparitions de firmes industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique »," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13.
    3. Hudson, John & Cuthbertson, Keith, 1993. "The Determinants of Bankruptcies in the U.K.: 1971-1988," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(1), pages 65-81, March.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1986. "Inflation, Bankruptcy, Default Premia and the Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 120-138, March.
    6. Myers, Stewart C., 1984. "Capital structure puzzle," Working papers 1548-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    7. repec:nsr:niesrd:54 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Murray Z. Frank, 1988. "An Intertemporal Model of Industrial Exit," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(2), pages 333-344.
    9. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. " The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-592, July.
    10. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Paul Francis O'Brien & Frank Browne, 1992. "A "Credit Crunch"?: The Recent Slowdown in Bank Lending and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 107, OECD Publishing.
    12. de Leeuw, Frank & McKelvey, Michael J, 1984. "Price Expectations of Business Firms: Bias in the Short and Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 99-110, March.
    13. Jean-Marie Callies, 1988. "Une entreprise sur deux disparaît avant cinq ans," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 215(1), pages 45-50.
    14. Régis Blazy & Patricia Charlety & Jérôme Combier, 1993. "Les défaillances d'entreprises : des difficultés visibles plusieurs années à l'avance," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 268(1), pages 101-111.
    15. Castanias, Richard, 1983. " Bankruptcy Risk and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1617-1635, December.
    16. Simmons, Peter, 1989. "Bad Luck and Fixed Costs in Personal Bankruptcies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 92-107, March.
    17. Mireille Bardos, 1990. "Le crédit plus cher pour les petites entreprises," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 236(1), pages 51-64.
    18. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    19. White, Michelle J, 1989. "The Corporate Bankruptcy Decision," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 129-151, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ecop .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.