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Disagreement about the inflation outlook


  • Sylvain Leduc
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch
  • Justin Weidner


Disagreement among economic forecasters about the future path of inflation has risen substantially since the start of the recession. The nature of this disagreement varies with the forecast time horizon, with some forecasters expecting much lower short-run inflation and others anticipating much higher long-run inflation. This variation may complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy communications strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Justin Weidner, 2009. "Disagreement about the inflation outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct5.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2009:i:oct5:n:2009-31

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Eileen Mauskopf & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Peter A. Tinsley, 1990. "The transmission channels of monetary policy: how have they changed?," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Dec, pages 985-1008.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    2. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter & Kai D. Schmid, 2009. "The Camp View of Inflation Forecasts," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 320/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2013. "What caused the decline in long-term yields?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue july8.
    4. Sauter, Oliver, 2012. "Assessing uncertainty in Europe and the US: is there a common uncertainty factor?," MPRA Paper 38031, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Inflation (Finance) ; Economic forecasting;


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