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The Camp View of Inflation Forecasts

Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters’ judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens.

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File URL: http://www.uni-hohenheim.de/RePEc/hoh/papers/320.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany in its series Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim with number 320/2009.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hoh:hohdip:320
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Web page: http://www.uni-hohenheim.de/institution/institut-fuer-economics-11
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  1. Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "Inflation Risk Premia and Survey Evidence on Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 7250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 13325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  4. Gabriela Galati & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 167-207, March.
  5. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2008. "Are long-run inflation expectations anchored more firmly in the Euro area than in the United States?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Refet Gurkaynak & Marcel Fratzscher & Eric Swanson & Michael Ehrmann, 2009. "Convergence And Anchoring Of Yield Curves In The Euro Area," 2009 Meeting Papers 897, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  8. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 384, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 09 Oct 2000.
  9. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  10. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money at Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Justin Weidner, 2009. "Disagreement about the inflation outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct5.
  12. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
  13. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2003. "Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets: the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 0273, European Central Bank.
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