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The Camp View of Inflation Forecasts

Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters’ judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens.

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File URL: http://www.uni-hohenheim.de/RePEc/hoh/papers/320.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany in its series Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim with number 320/2009.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hoh:hohdip:320
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Phone: 0711/459-22992
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Web page: http://www.uni-hohenheim.de/institution/institut-fuer-economics-11
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  1. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Refet S. Gürkaynak & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Convergence and anchoring of yield curves in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 2007-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
  3. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 13325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Paul Söderlind, 2011. "Inflation Risk Premia and Survey Evidence on Macroeconomic Uncertainty," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(2), pages 113-133, June.
  5. Gabriela Galati & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 167-207, March.
  6. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  7. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2011. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 104-29, April.
  8. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money at Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  10. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009. "Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  11. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
  12. Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Justin Weidner, 2009. "Disagreement about the inflation outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct5.
  13. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2003. "Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets: the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 0273, European Central Bank.
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