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Testing the expectations theory of the term structure for New Zealand

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  • Graeme Guthrie
  • Julian Wright
  • Jun Yu

Abstract

This paper tests the rational expectations theory of the term structure using recent daily, weekly, and monthly observations on New Zealand interest rates. We find that for many maturities we cannot reject the expectations hypothesis using both short and long versions of the theory. These results are interpreted as further evidence that the failure of the expectations hypothesis in the United States is due to the specific interest rate smoothing behaviour of the Federal Reserve.

Suggested Citation

  • Graeme Guthrie & Julian Wright & Jun Yu, 1999. "Testing the expectations theory of the term structure for New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 93-114.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:33:y:1999:i:1:p:93-114
    DOI: 10.1080/00779959909544299
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
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    5. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
    6. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    7. Schotman, Peter C., 1997. "Small sample properties of the regression test of the expectations model of the term structure1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 129-134, December.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
    9. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
    10. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    11. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    12. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    13. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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    Cited by:

    1. Siklos, Pierre L, 2000. "Inflation Targets and the Yield Curve: New Zealand and Australia versus the US," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 15-32, February.
    2. Long H. Vo, 2014. "Application of Kalman Filter on modelling interest rates," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena (Синельникова-Мурылева, Елена), 2017. "Analysis of Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia in Conditions of Transition to Inflation Targeting
      [Анализ Трансмиссионных Механизмов Денежно-Кредитной Политики Банка Р
      ," Working Papers 041703, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    4. Leo Krippner, 2002. "Extracting expectations of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate from the bank-risk yield curve," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2004. "Day-of-the-week effects: New Zealand bank bills, 1985-2000," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 859-873.
    6. Michael Gordon, 2003. "Estimates of time-varying term premia for New Zealand and Australia," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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