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A generalised arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model: The impact of unspanned stochastic volatility

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  • Chen, Rui
  • Du, Ke

Abstract

Although statistical term structure models provide exceptional in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting of interest rates, the lack of theoretical background is criticized by academics and practitioners, such as the absent of arbitrage free. In this paper we develop a general Arbitrage-Free Nelson–Siegel model under the HJM framework. It features unspanned stochastic volatility factors while maintaining a Nelson–Siegel factor loading structure. This paper also exploits the potential to jointly model the interest rates and their derivatives.

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  • Chen, Rui & Du, Ke, 2013. "A generalised arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model: The impact of unspanned stochastic volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 41-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:10:y:2013:i:1:p:41-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2012.07.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
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    5. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2002. "Do Bonds Span the Fixed Income Markets? Theory and Evidence for Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1685-1730, August.
    6. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    8. Haitao Li & Feng Zhao, 2006. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility: Evidence from Hedging Interest Rate Derivatives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 341-378, February.
    9. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure; Nelson and Siegel model; Unspanned stochastic volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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