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Bayesian Factor Selection in Dynamic Term Structure Models

  • Márcio Laurini

    (IBMEC Business School)

This paper discusses Bayesian procedures for factor selection in dynamic term structure models through simulation methods based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The number of factors, besides influencing the fitting and prediction of observed yields, is also relevant to features such as the imposition of no-arbitrage conditions. We present a methodology for selecting the best specification in the Nelson-Siegel class of models using Reversible Jump MCMC.

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File URL: http://professores.ibmecrj.br/erg/dp/papers/dp201102.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro in its series IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers with number 2011-02.

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Date of creation: 18 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ibr:dpaper:2011-02
Contact details of provider: Postal: Av. Pres. Wilson 118, 11 andar, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, 20030-020
Web page: http://professores.ibmecrj.br/erg/

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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
  3. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages C33-C64, November.
  4. Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Wagner, Helga, 2010. "Stochastic model specification search for Gaussian and partial non-Gaussian state space models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 85-100, January.
  5. Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348.
  6. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521852258 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Scott Joslin & Kenneth J. Singleton & Haoxiang Zhu, 2011. "A New Perspective on Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 926-970.
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