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Distributive Conflict, Investment, and Persistent Unemployment: Evidence from a Kaleckian Long-Memory Model — The Case of Germany (1990–2024

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  • boughabi, houssam

Abstract

This paper investigates the interplay between distributive conflict, investment dynamics, and persistent unemployment within a Kaleckian framework, emphasizing the long-memory properties of wages. We develop a stochastic model in which wages adjust adaptively to historical discrepancies between prices and wages, while investment is driven by expected profitability rather than market clearing. Applying this model to Germany over the period 1990–2024, we provide evidence that cumulative divergences between prices and wages generate persistent effects on real wages, aggregate demand, and employment. Our findings highlight that long-memory wage dynamics amplify the unemployment consequences of investment-driven accumulation, demonstrating a structural mechanism through which distributive conflict and inflation interact. The results underscore the importance of historical wage inertia and profit-led investment in shaping macroeconomic outcomes, offering new insights into the sources of persistent unemployment in advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • boughabi, houssam, 2026. "Distributive Conflict, Investment, and Persistent Unemployment: Evidence from a Kaleckian Long-Memory Model — The Case of Germany (1990–2024," MPRA Paper 127571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:127571
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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