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The Price Puzzle in Emerging Markets : Evidence from the Turkish Economy Using Model Based Risk Premium Derived from Domestic Fundamentals

  • Zelal Aktas
  • Neslihan Kaya
  • Umit Ozlale

The recent studies by Blanchard (2004) and Favero and Giavazzi (2004) imply that a tight monetary policy consistent with an inflation-targeting framework in emerging market economies could actually increase the price level due to the lack of fiscal discipline and the associated high risk premium. We extend their arguments in two ways. First, we introduce a semi structural model with time varying parameters, where the risk premium is ‘unobserved’ and is derived within the system. Such an approach fits better with the volatile nature of the emerging market economies by allowing us to track down the time-varying effects of macroeconomic dynamics on both risk premium and other related variables. Second, we obtain the impulse response functions and analyze the implications of a tight monetary policy on the risk premium. Taking the Turkish economy as our reference point, we find that the arguments of Blanchard (2004) and Favero and Giavazzi (2004) seem to be valid.

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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 0502.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0502
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  1. Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  3. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2003. "Empirical determinants of emerging market economies' sovereign bond spreads," Bank of England working papers 205, Bank of England.
  5. Olcay Yucel Emir & Fatih Ozatay & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2004. "High Public Debt and Effects of News on Interest Rates," Working Papers 0403, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  6. Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1998. "Government debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669 Elsevier.
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 4376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Bergin, Paul R., 2006. "How well can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics explain the exchange rate and current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 675-701, August.
  12. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 2000. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 2522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
  14. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 13917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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