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Tradeoffs Between Inflation and Output-Gap Variances in an Optimizing-Agent Model

Author

Listed:
  • Erceg, C.J.
  • Henderson, D.W.
  • Levin, A.T.

Abstract

We demonstrate the existence of a monetary policy tradeoff between price-inflation variability and output-gap variability in an optimizing-agent model with staggered nominal wage and price contracts. This variance tradeoff is absent only in the special case in which prices are sticky and wages are perfectly flexible. When the model is calibrated to exhibit an empirically reasonable degree of nominal wage inertia, strict inflation targeting induces substantial output-gap volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Erceg, C.J. & Henderson, D.W. & Levin, A.T., 1998. "Tradeoffs Between Inflation and Output-Gap Variances in an Optimizing-Agent Model," Papers 650, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:stocin:650
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    Cited by:

    1. Davide Debortoli & Jinill Kim & Jesper Lindé & Ricardo Nunes, 2019. "Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks: Does a Dual Mandate Make Sense?," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(621), pages 2010-2038.
    2. Jonas E. Arias & Minchul Shin, 2025. "Breaking Down the Latest Fight Against Inflation," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 10(2), pages 14-22, June.
    3. Lavan Mahadeva & Katerina Smidkova, 2004. "Modelling transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the Czech Republic," Macroeconomics 0402032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tanaka Yasuhito, 2020. "Microeconomic Foundation of the Phillips Curve," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 65(3), pages 14-26, December.
    5. Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
    6. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2004. "Is There a Trade‐Off Between Inflation Variability and Output‐Gap Variability in the EMU Countries?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(5), pages 691-706, November.
    7. Marjan Petreski, 2012. "Output Volatility and Exchange Rate Considerations Under Inflation Targeting : A Review," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 528-537.
    8. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    9. Hakan, Yilmazkuday, 2009. "Is there a Role for International Trade Costs in Explaining the Central Bank Behavior?," MPRA Paper 15951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Burcu Eyigungor, 2025. "Understanding Job Growth," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 10(2), pages 1-6, June.
    11. Andrew Hertzberg, 2025. "Credit Scores and Rising Credit Card Delinquencies," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 10(2), pages 7-13, June.
    12. Marjan Petreski, 2009. "A Critique On Inflation Targeting," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 11-24, December.
    13. Lavan Mahadeva & Katerina Smidkova, 2001. "What Is the Appropriate Rate of Disinflation to Be Targeted in the Czech Economy?," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 2001/33, Czech National Bank.
    14. Pelin Ilbas, 2008. "Estimation of monetary policy preferences in a forward-looking model : a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Research 129, National Bank of Belgium.
    15. Alejandro Rodríguez Arana, 2019. "Limited Information and the Relation Between the Variance of Inflation and the Variance of Output in a New Keynesian," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(PNEA), pages 541-557, Agosto 20.
    16. Alex Lammertsma & Clemens J. M. Kool, 2000. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 312-315, March.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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